3853 Chimney Creek Dr · Virginia Beach, VA 23462

$290,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,527 sqft · Townhouse public records · 33 Days on market

Built 1983 Est $313k · 7% under $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• ARV discount +10.8/15.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in the heart of Chimney Hill, this 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath townhome offers strong upside for buyers ready to make it their own. The layout includes a spacious living area with fireplace, dedicated dining space, and three upstairs bedrooms, including a primary with ensuite bath. Private fenced patio adds outdoor space, and the community offers amenities including a pool. Centrally positioned near Town Center, shopping, dining, and major commuter routes.

Key facts

• Fenced patio
• Primary ensuite bath
• Community amenities

Tags

• FENCED PATIO
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• DEDICATED DINING SPACE
• PRIMARY ENSUITE BATH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-79 ($-942/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $276k (4.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (21.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $227k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.5% in Virginia Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#38 in VA, #880 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, commute F.
• Va Beach City Public School District (urban): math 69% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #10 of 131 in VA (top 8%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: White Oaks Elementary (math 51% / reading 64%, grade C+, #588 of 1,108 statewide, top 54%, 679 students, 54% FRL); Larkspur Middle (math 60% / reading 72%, grade A-, #113 of 342 statewide, top 33%, 1,536 students, 60% FRL); Green Run High (math 64% / reading 69%, grade B, #195 of 319 statewide, top 62%, 1,517 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 28% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 235 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 666 units permitted in Virginia Beach city in 2024 (347 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Virginia Beach County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask is 18% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $195k; 49% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $226,696 (21.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.16%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $313,035
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3853 Chimney Creek Dr	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,527 (0%)	1mo	$290,000	$190	99
3817 Chimney Creek Dr	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,527 (0%)	1mo	$285,000	$187	96
3612 Essex Pond Quay	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,568 (+3%)	1mo	$280,000	$179	90
718 Woodbox Dr	0.12mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,391 (-9%)	1mo	$275,000	$198	74
906 Hunley Dr	0.42mi	3/2.5	1,595 (+4%)	1mo	$350,000	$219	72
887 Hunley Dr	0.43mi	3/2.5	1,595 (+4%)	0mo	$366,000	$229	72
716 Woodbox Dr	0.13mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,368 (-10%)	0mo	$281,000	$205	68
3781 Chancery Ln	0.47mi	3/2.5	1,632 (+7%)	0mo	$311,000	$191	66
3650 Arthur Ave	0.41mi	3/1.5	1,404 (-8%)	1mo	$285,000	$203	63
3920 Filbert Way	0.54mi	3/2.5	1,688 (+10%)	1mo	$349,000	$207	56
732 Garfield Ave	0.52mi	3/1.5	1,367 (-10%)	1mo	$304,000	$222	54
3911 Van Ness Dr	0.62mi	3/2.5	1,688 (+10%)	0mo	$354,900	$210	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-45,935
• Equity at exit: $43,240

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-20,194
• Equity at exit: $25,074

Cash invested: $81,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23462

• Rents YoY: 5.6%
• Active inventory: 235
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,267 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax from tax record: −$203 /mo · $2,434/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$476
• Net cashflow: $-79

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,366

Max offer price $276,126

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $86	-5% $4	+0% $-79	+5% $-161	+10% $-243
Rent	-10% $-258	-5% $-168	+0% $-79	+5% $11	+10% $101
Rate	-1.0pp $68	-0.5pp $-5	base $-79	+0.5pp $-154	+1.0pp $-230

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,500
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
724 Harbor Springs Trl Virginia Beach, VA	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,795	$1.50	14d	1	0.16mi
3620 Dryden Ct Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	2.5	1678	$2,500	$1.49	0d	1	0.22mi
3700 Snowdrift Cir Virginia Beach, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	887	$2,599	$2.93	26d	1	0.23mi
3841 Forrester Ln Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	2.0	1522	$2,300	$1.51	26d	1	0.30mi
701 Arthur Ave Virginia Beach, VA	4.0	1.5	1404	$2,500	$1.78	19d	1	0.34mi
717 Grant Ave Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	2.5	1248	$2,160	$1.73	26d	1	0.36mi
640 Counselor Sq Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	1.5	1320	$2,000	$1.52	17d	1	0.38mi
629 Counselor Sq Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	1.5	1326	$1,995	$1.50	26d	1	0.41mi
846 Crashaw St Virginia Beach, VA	2.0	2.0	1346	$1,895	$1.41	17d	1	0.42mi
3816 Banyan Grove Ln Virginia Beach, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1021	$3,082	$3.02	0d	17	0.44mi
621 Chancery Sq Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	1.0	1320	$1,970	$1.49	19d	1	0.48mi
713 Willow Lake Cir Virginia Beach, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1041	$2,475	$2.38	26d	1	0.48mi
3923 Lake Front Cir Virginia Beach, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0	918	$1,845	$2.01	13d	1	0.60mi
4016 Richard Lee Ct Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	1.5	1470	$2,100	$1.43	4d	1	0.61mi
3564 Faraday Ln Virginia Beach, VA	4.0	2.5	1700	$2,600	$1.53	26d	1	0.61mi
833 Tamarack Ct Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,100	$1.27	18d	1	0.69mi
3560 Windmill Dr Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	1.5	1080	$2,000	$1.85	0d	1	0.82mi
807 Foxmoore Ct Virginia Beach, VA	2.0	2.5	1125	$2,000	$1.78	5d	1	0.86mi
643 Orangewood Dr Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	2.0	1571	$2,495	$1.59	26d	1	0.87mi
3596 Windmill Dr Virginia Beach, VA	2.0	1.5	1088	$1,850	$1.70	0d	1	0.89mi
4217 S Plaza Trl Virginia Beach, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1450	$2,325	$1.60	13d	1	0.93mi
3504 Shawn Ct Virginia Beach, VA	4.0	2.5	1669	$2,650	$1.59	26d	1	0.99mi
3632 Silina Dr Virginia Beach, VA	4.0	2.5	1666	$2,495	$1.50	10d	1	1.10mi
4133 Shoreline Cir Virginia Beach, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	964	$2,000	$2.07	13d	1	1.20mi
1500 Chase Arbor Cmn Virginia Beach, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1095	$2,629	$2.40	0d	27	1.20mi
4119 Eastham Rd Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	2.0	1505	$3,800	$2.52	26d	1	1.22mi
3517 Plum Cres Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,200	$1.52	14d	1	1.23mi
1409 Northface Ct Virginia Beach, VA	2.0	1.5	1178	$1,750	$1.49	10d	1	1.25mi
3521 Sierra Arch Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	1.5	1420	$1,650	$1.16	26d	1	1.25mi
1401 Wendfield Dr #103 Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	1.5	1344	$1,850	$1.38	22d	1	1.28mi
1404 Wendfield Dr #102 Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	1.5	1344	$2,000	$1.49	26d	1	1.29mi
1404 Wendfield Dr #102 Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	1.5	1344	$2,000	$1.49	6d	1	1.29mi
1404 Wendfield Dr Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	1.5	1344	$2,000	$1.49	6d	1	1.29mi
4221 Old Lyne Rd Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	2.5	1615	$2,095	$1.30	26d	1	1.32mi
3444 Terrazzo Trl Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	2.0	1217	$1,650	$1.36	6d	1	1.33mi
4425 Duffy Dr Virginia Beach, VA	2.0	2.5	1388	$2,050	$1.48	14d	1	1.42mi
3304 Weeping Willow Ln Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	1.5	1254	$1,750	$1.40	26d	1	1.44mi
408 Lineberry Rd Virginia Beach, VA	4.0	2.0	1561	$2,700	$1.73	26d	1	1.46mi
1523 Penrose Arch Virginia Beach, VA	2.0	2.0	1126	$1,550	$1.38	6d	1	1.47mi
220 S Rosemont Rd Virginia Beach, VA	4.0	2.0	1350	$2,650	$1.96	26d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-03-17
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-02-23
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-02-21
   price $290,000
4. 2026-02-16
   price $275,000
5. 2026-02-12
   listed $245,000 Active
6. 2020-04-21
   soldstatus $195,000
7. 2020-04-06
   status Under Contract
8. 2020-03-09
   historical Active Under Contract
9. 2020-03-04
   listed $195,000 Active
10. 2020-01-03
    status Under Contract
11. 2019-11-29
    historical Active Under Contract
12. 2019-11-22
    listed $151,000 Active
13. 2019-11-22
    listed $151 Active
14. 2019-11-22
    historical
15. 1989-01-23
    soldstatus $63,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,434 · $203/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,434 · $203/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,204
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,245
• − Property taxes: −$2,434
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,176
• − Management: −$2,176
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable loss: −$6,014
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,443
• After-tax cash flow: $501/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Va Beach City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103840
• Math proficiency: 69% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 78% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $66,452
• Composite: 63.81/100
• National rank: #594
• State rank: #10 of 131 in VA

Livability — Virginia Beach

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #38
• US rank: #880

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Virginia Beach, VA
• County: Virginia Beach City · 448,227 people
• City population: 448,227
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• Population (ZIP): 66,151
• Household income: $69,040
• Rent vs Own: 46.3% rent · 53.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 3906.0

Population outlook (Virginia Beach County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 480,401 people
• By 2030: 491,221 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 504,882 · +5.1%
• By 2050: 508,847 · +5.9%
• By 2075: 504,831 · +5.1%
• By 2100: 465,867 · -3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 32% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 10% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 6% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Virginia Beach

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.7% · R 48.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.4pp toward D · 2008: -0.7pp · 2024: 2.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.6 2020: D+5.4 2016: R+4.5 2012: R+2.5 2008: R+0.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -269.19%
• Current HPI: 333.1908
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.61%
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+356.7% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Pending — REINMLS
• 2026-02-23 Contingent — REINMLS
• 2026-02-21 Price Changed $290,000 REINMLS
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $275,000 REINMLS
• 2026-02-12 Listed $245,000 REINMLS
• 2020-04-21 Sold (Public Records) $195,000 Public Records
• 2020-04-06 Pending — REINMLS
• 2020-03-09 Contingent — REINMLS
• 2020-03-04 Listed $195,000 REINMLS
• 2020-01-03 Pending — REINMLS
• 2019-11-29 Contingent — REINMLS
• 2019-11-22 Listing Removed — REINMLS
• 2019-11-22 Listed $151 REINMLS
• 2019-11-22 Listed $151,000 REINMLS
• 1989-01-23 Sold (Public Records) $63,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,434 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.