40 74th St

Guttenberg, NJ 07047

$357,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 921 sqft · Built 1947 · SingleFamily · Under Contract

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,926/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,872
• Tax + insurance: −$348
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$614
• Net cashflow: $91/mo
• Annual: $1,094/yr
• Cap rate: 6.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.09%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $99,960

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $357k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $91 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $293k (18.0% below list).
• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $293k (18.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#51 in NJ, #1,253 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: cost of living F.
• North Bergen School District (suburban): math 12% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #393 of 472 in NJ (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Robert Fulton Elementary School (math 16% / reading 44%, grade F, #721 of 1,303 statewide, top 56%, 880 students, 52% FRL); North Bergen High School (math 13% / reading 36%, grade F, #327 of 399 statewide, top 82%, 2,355 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 51% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 210 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,310 units permitted in Hudson County in 2024 (4,154 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hudson County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $241k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.3% in Guttenberg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.