40 74th St · Guttenberg, NJ 07047

$357,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 921 sqft · SingleFamily

Built 1947

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Experience modern living in this stunning 2-bedroom, 921-square-foot condominium, designed for comfort and style. Renovated in 2022, this spacious open-concept home features high ceilings, recessed lighting, and abundant natural light throughout. The fully furnished kitchen boasts contemporary appliances, while elegant wood paneling adds warmth and sophistication to the living room and bedrooms. Perfectly positioned right on Boulevard East, this residence offers breathtaking, unobstructed views of New York City. Steps from express bus transportation to Manhattan and just five streets from James J. Braddock North Hudson County Park & acirc; & euro; & rdquo; featuring tennis court

Key facts

• Built 1947

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $357k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $91 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $293k (18.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $293k (18.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.3% in Guttenberg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#51 in NJ, #1,253 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: cost of living F.
• North Bergen School District (suburban): math 12% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #393 of 472 in NJ (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Robert Fulton Elementary School (math 16% / reading 44%, grade F, #721 of 1,303 statewide, top 56%, 880 students, 52% FRL); North Bergen High School (math 13% / reading 36%, grade F, #327 of 399 statewide, top 82%, 2,355 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 51% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 210 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,310 units permitted in Hudson County in 2024 (4,154 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hudson County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $241k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $292,604 (18.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.09%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.99% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-46,175
• Equity at exit: $53,230

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-7,632
• Equity at exit: $30,867

Cash invested: $99,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 07047

• Home prices YoY: -31.5%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 210
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,926 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,872
• Tax from tax record: −$200 /mo · $2,394/yr
• Insurance: −$149
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$614
• Net cashflow: $91

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,811

Max offer price $357,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $293	-5% $192	+0% $91	+5% $-10	+10% $-111
Rent	-10% $-140	-5% $-24	+0% $91	+5% $207	+10% $322
Rate	-1.0pp $271	-0.5pp $182	base $91	+0.5pp $-1	+1.0pp $-95

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $89,250
• Closing costs: $10,710
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7430 Boulevard E Unit 4A North Bergen, NJ	2.0	1.0	991	$3,500	$3.53	26d	1	0.12mi
116 71st St #14 Guttenberg, NJ	2.0	1.0	700	$2,500	$3.57	9d	1	0.16mi
134 71st St Unit GR Guttenberg, NJ	1.0	1.0	1000	$1,750	$1.75	26d	1	0.17mi
140 71st St Unit 8 Guttenberg, NJ	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,750	$2.50	19d	1	0.18mi
7855 Boulevard East North Bergen, NJ	1.0	1.0–1.5	781	$2,775	$3.55	23d	3	0.20mi
7601 River Rd North Bergen, NJ	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1300	$5,198	$4.00	0d	16	0.21mi
7606 River Rd Unit 02 North Bergen, NJ	1.0	1.0	900	$3,490	$3.88	26d	1	0.22mi
148 70th St Unit 401 Guttenberg, NJ	2.0	2.0	1100	$3,250	$2.95	19d	1	0.24mi
148 70th St Unit 401 Guttenberg, NJ	2.0	2.0	1100	$3,250	$2.95	26d	1	0.24mi
148 70th St Unit 303 Guttenberg, NJ	1.0	1.0	753	$2,400	$3.19	19d	1	0.24mi
148 70th St Unit 303 Guttenberg, NJ	1.0	1.0	753	$2,400	$3.19	26d	1	0.24mi
74 69th St Unit 3B Guttenberg, NJ	1.0	1.0	535	$2,050	$3.83	26d	1	0.24mi
139 70th St Unit 3 Guttenberg, NJ	1.0	1.0	525	$1,775	$3.38	17d	1	0.24mi
62 69th St Guttenberg, NJ	1.0	1.0	829	$2,495	$3.01	19d	1	0.25mi
7004 JFK Blvd E Unit 29D Guttenberg, NJ	1.0	1.5	1003	$3,300	$3.29	14d	1	0.27mi
7650 River Rd Unit 812 North Bergen, NJ	1.0	1.0	900	$3,350	$3.72	26d	1	0.29mi
7650 River Rd Unit 842 North Bergen, NJ	1.0	1.0	900	$3,395	$3.77	26d	1	0.29mi
110 68th St Apt 2E Guttenberg, NJ	1.0	1.0	700	$1,800	$2.57	26d	1	0.30mi
7900 River Rd Unit 1012 2 Bedroom North Bergen, NJ	2.0	2.0	1125	$3,700	$3.29	26d	1	0.30mi
7900 River Rd Unit 912 2 Bedroom North Bergen, NJ	2.0	2.0	1125	$2,725	$2.42	26d	1	0.31mi
60 68th St Unit 505 Guttenberg, NJ	1.0	1.0	670	$2,550	$3.81	15d	1	0.31mi
60 68th St Unit 406 Guttenberg, NJ	1.0	1.0	700	$2,600	$3.71	15d	1	0.31mi
7602 River Rd Unit 1 Bdrm 900sf Guttenberg, NJ	1.0	1.0	900	$3,395	$3.77	26d	1	0.31mi
7602 River Rd Unit 411 Guttenberg, NJ	1.0	1.0	900	$3,750	$4.17	26d	1	0.31mi
7602 River Rd Unit 311 Guttenberg, NJ	1.0	1.0	900	$3,450	$3.83	26d	1	0.31mi
7602 River Rd Unit 1 Guttenberg, NJ	1.0	1.0	900	$3,550	$3.94	26d	1	0.31mi
7000 JFK Blvd E Unit 22A West New York, NJ	1.0	1.0	875	$3,000	$3.43	26d	1	0.32mi
7000 JFK Blvd E Unit 22C Guttenberg, NJ	1.0	1.5	932	$3,198	$3.43	24d	1	0.32mi
7000 JFK Blvd E Unit 22C Guttenberg, NJ	1.0	1.5	932	$3,198	$3.43	15d	1	0.32mi
7000 JFK Blvd E Unit 23F West New York, NJ	1.0	1.0	875	$2,850	$3.26	26d	1	0.32mi
7812 Hudson Ave Unit B1 North Bergen, NJ	2.0	1.0	750	$2,100	$2.80	15d	1	0.33mi
7000 JFK Blvd E Unit 42H West New York, NJ	1.0	1.5	970	$2,950	$3.04	19d	1	0.33mi
6710 Park Ave #205 Guttenberg, NJ	1.0	1.0	700	$2,550	$3.64	26d	1	0.33mi
6710 Park Ave #203 Guttenberg, NJ	1.0	1.0	700	$2,500	$3.57	26d	1	0.33mi
7002 JFK Blvd E Unit 15B Guttenberg, NJ	1.0	1.5	932	$3,100	$3.33	26d	1	0.34mi
7002 JFK Blvd E Unit 41J Guttenberg, NJ	1.0	1.5	840	$2,600	$3.10	1d	1	0.34mi
7002 JFK Blvd E Unit 14B Guttenberg, NJ	1.0	1.5	950	$3,150	$3.32	26d	1	0.34mi
7912 River Rd North Bergen, NJ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1136	$4,242	$3.73	1d	13	0.34mi
301 79th St Unit A9 North Bergen, NJ	1.0	1.0	618	$1,850	$2.99	26d	1	0.34mi
310 70th St Guttenberg, NJ	1.0	1.0	600	$1,850	$3.08	26d	1	0.35mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-26
   listed $357,000
2. 2022-11-27
   historical
3. 2017-11-09
   soldstatus $241,000 Sold
4. 2017-09-21
   historical
5. 2017-09-06
   listed $240,000 Active
6. 2003-03-27
   historical
7. 2003-03-12
   listed $169,900
8. 2002-09-30
   historical
9. 2002-06-10
   listed $139,900
10. 2000-11-16
    soldstatus $70,000
11. 1999-06-09
    soldstatus $50,000
12. 1998-10-16
    soldstatus $50,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,394 · $200/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,642 · $470/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,248/yr (+$271/mo · 135.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,112
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,998
• − Property taxes: −$2,394
• − Insurance: −$1,785
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,809
• − Management: −$2,809
• − Depreciation: −$10,385
• Taxable loss: −$5,068
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,216
• After-tax cash flow: $2,310/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Bergen School District
• NCES district ID: 3411460
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $54,275
• Composite: 21.95/100
• National rank: #8221
• State rank: #393 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Guttenberg

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #51
• US rank: #1253

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A- Employment B Housing B+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hudson County · 718,323 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 61,250
• Household income: $78,911
• Rent vs Own: 58.4% rent · 41.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 3908.0

Population outlook (Hudson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 771,834 people
• By 2030: 818,028 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 907,866 · +17.6%
• By 2050: 994,480 · +28.8%
• By 2075: 1,163,301 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,254,703 · +62.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 69% Two or more races 26% White 20% Asian 7% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 11% Dominican 12%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 50% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 27% English-only · Spanish 61% Other Indo-European 4% Arabic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Hudson

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+28.1) · D 62.6% · R 34.6% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.7pp toward R · 2008: 46.7pp · 2024: 28.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+28.1 2020: D+46.2 2016: D+51.8 2012: D+55.7 2008: D+46.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -192.36%
• Current HPI: 419.0283
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.99%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+614.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $357,000 FSBO.com
• 2022-11-27 Rental Removed — NJMLS
• 2017-11-09 Sold (MLS) $241,000 GSMLS
• 2017-09-21 Delisted — GSMLS
• 2017-09-06 Listed $240,000 GSMLS
• 2003-03-27 Listing Removed — HCMLS
• 2003-03-12 Listed $169,900 HCMLS
• 2002-09-30 Listing Removed — HCMLS
• 2002-06-10 Listed $139,900 HCMLS
• 2000-11-16 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 1999-06-09 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 1998-10-16 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2010): $2,394 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.