9461 Pagewood Ln

Houston, TX 77063

$115,000D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,402 sqft · Built 1978 · Townhouse · Active · 142 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,414/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax + insurance: −$192
• HOA: −$415
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$297
• Net cashflow: $-93/mo
• Annual: $-1,112/yr
• Cap rate: 5.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.45%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 1.23%
• Cash to close: $32,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $115k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-93 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $102k (11.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Emerson El (math 21% / reading 25%, grade F, #3,277 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 975 students, 95% FRL); Revere Middle (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,583 of 1,662 statewide, top 96%, 1,112 students, 93% FRL); Wisdom H S (math 17% / reading 16%, grade F, #1,497 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 2,260 students, 97% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 71% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 18% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 29% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-6.3%/yr); 290 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?