9461 Pagewood Ln · Houston, TX 77063

$115,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,402 sqft · Townhouse · 142 Days on market

Built 1978 Good condition 3.57 ac lot $82/sqft · 11% below area Est $130k · 11% under $415/mo HOA · 29% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +0.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This beautiful 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath condo is ideally located between Richmond and Gessner in the Tanglewilde South community. Welcome home to Unit 9461, featuring a spacious primary bedroom with a large walk-in closet and an ensuite bath with a tub/shower combination. The open family area offers generous living space with tile flooring throughout. One of the secondary bedrooms is conveniently located downstairs and includes an updated full bath. The home also provides a nicely sized breakfast/dining area. Upstairs, the primary bedroom includes access to a private balcony. The kitchen offers ample cabinet space and granite countertops. Residents can enjoy the community’s refreshing pool and well-maintained common areas. This prime location offers quick access to the Sam Houston Tollway, Westpark Tollway, 610, I-10, and Hwy 59, along with an abundance of nearby restaurants and retail options.

Key facts

• Open family area
• Updated full bath
• Ensuite bath

Tags

• SPACIOUS PRIMARY BEDROOM
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• ENSUITE BATH
• OPEN FAMILY AREA
• TILE FLOORING
• UPDATED FULL BATH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $115k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-93 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $102k (11.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Emerson El (math 21% / reading 25%, grade F, #3,277 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 975 students, 95% FRL); Revere Middle (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,583 of 1,662 statewide, top 96%, 1,112 students, 93% FRL); Wisdom H S (math 17% / reading 16%, grade F, #1,497 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 2,260 students, 97% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 71% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 18% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-6.3%/yr); 290 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 29% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.45%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $129,644
• List price: $115,000
• Delta: -11.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9546 Pagewood Ln #9546	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,402 (0%)	4mo	$139,000	$99	89
3875 Tanglewilde St #3875	0.17mi	3/2.5	1,359 (-3%)	4mo	$134,900	$99	84
3538 Ocee St	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,336 (-5%)	8mo	$120,000	$90	74
9465 Pagewood Ln #9465	0.03mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,224 (-13%)	8mo	$135,000	$110	64
9471 Pagewood Ln #9471	0.03mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,232 (-12%)	11mo	$85,000	$69	60
9502 Windswept Ln #9502	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,224 (-13%)	7mo	$155,900	$127	60
9800 Pagewood Ln #2703	0.57mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,520 (+8%)	2mo	$139,900	$92	52
3100 Jeanetta St #1002	0.61mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,464 (+4%)	9mo	$139,900	$96	52
9809 Richmond Ave Unit B13	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,494 (+7%)	2mo	$165,500	$111	52
3600 Jeanetta St #2502	0.37mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,220 (-13%)	7mo	$139,000	$114	51
3600 Jeanetta St #1902	0.37mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,220 (-13%)	8mo	$139,000	$114	49
9850 Pagewood Ln #1001	0.67mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,520 (+8%)	8mo	$158,000	$104	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-28,403
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: -56.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.47×
• Total profit: $-47,223
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77063

• Rents YoY: -6.3%
• Active inventory: 290
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,414 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$144 /mo · $1,725/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$415
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$297
• Net cashflow: $-93

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,531

Max offer price $101,594

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-13	-5% $-53	+0% $-93	+5% $-132	+10% $-172
Rent	-10% $-204	-5% $-149	+0% $-93	+5% $-37	+10% $19
Rate	-1.0pp $-35	-0.5pp $-63	base $-93	+0.5pp $-122	+1.0pp $-153

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3777 S Gessner Rd Unit 1801 WD Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	876	$1,140	$1.30	46d	1	0.36mi
3777 S Gessner Rd Unit 1811 WD Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	876	$1,140	$1.30	10d	1	0.36mi
3777 S Gessner Rd Unit 0315** WD Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	876	$1,240	$1.42	46d	1	0.36mi
9515 Meadowglen Ln Unit 1019618P Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1603	$14,846	$9.26	24d	1	0.51mi
9707 Richmond Ave Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1000	$2,250	$2.25	46d	4	0.63mi
3230 S Gessner Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	710	$1,099	$1.55	27d	9	0.65mi
9850 Richmond Ave Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	898	$1,619	$1.80	1d	9	0.65mi
8100 Sands Point Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	953	$1,630	$1.71	0d	27	0.71mi
10070 Westpark Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	720	$1,199	$1.67	0d	18	0.80mi
2900 S Gessner Rd Unit 2047 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1076	$990	$0.92	0d	1	0.81mi
2900 S Gessner Rd Unit 2047 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1076	$980	$0.91	1d	1	0.81mi
9411 Westheimer Rd Unit 2165 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,354	$1.29	0d	1	0.82mi
9411 Westheimer Rd Unit 9468 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,303	$1.24	1d	1	0.82mi
9411 Westheimer Rd Unit 423 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,014	$0.97	16d	1	0.82mi
2748 Jeanetta St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1035	$1,489	$1.44	46d	1	0.84mi
9233 Westheimer Rd Unit 9290 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1099	$1,614	$1.47	46d	1	0.85mi
9233 Westheimer Rd Unit 2174 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1099	$1,589	$1.45	18d	1	0.85mi
9233 Westheimer Rd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	1045	$1,765	$1.69	2d	9	0.85mi
2691 Westerland Dr Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1196	$1,660	$1.39	14d	1	0.85mi
5810 Fondren Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1000	$1,450	$1.45	17d	1	0.85mi
2900 S Gessner Rd Unit 2162 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1076	$955	$0.89	9d	1	0.87mi
10100 Westpark Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	891	$1,299	$1.46	19d	21	0.88mi
3400 Woodchase Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	797	$1,134	$1.42	4d	28	0.88mi
9940 Richmond Ave Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1262	$1,710	$1.35	15d	1	0.89mi
9940 Richmond Ave Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1262	$1,710	$1.35	46d	1	0.89mi
8707 Town Park Dr Unit 3282 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	975	$1,070	$1.10	46d	1	0.90mi
8707 Town Park Dr Unit 3282 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	975	$1,070	$1.10	19d	1	0.90mi
9940 Richmond Ave Unit 2047 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1012	$1,360	$1.34	13d	1	0.90mi
3030 Elmside Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	870	$1,370	$1.57	1d	20	0.90mi
3750 Thistlemont Dr Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,400	$1.30	46d	1	0.91mi
2600 Westerland Dr Unit 2047 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	996	$1,213	$1.22	5d	1	0.92mi
9940 Richmond Ave Unit 2162 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1012	$1,325	$1.31	8d	1	0.92mi
9940 Richmond Ave Unit 2148 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1012	$1,360	$1.34	0d	1	0.92mi
9940 Richmond Ave Unit 424 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1012	$1,325	$1.31	9d	1	0.92mi
9940 Richmond Ave Unit 9997 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1012	$1,349	$1.33	13d	1	0.92mi
9940 Richmond Ave Unit Fwt Houston, TX	2.0	2.5	1262	$1,710	$1.35	7d	1	0.92mi
3098 Crossview Dr Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1255	$1,510	$1.20	27d	1	0.92mi
8701 Town Park Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	890	$1,275	$1.43	0d	75	0.94mi
2600 Westerland Dr Unit 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	996	$1,189	$1.19	10d	1	0.95mi
2600 Westerland Dr Unit 2162 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	996	$1,189	$1.19	8d	1	0.95mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $415 · $4,980/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $115,000 Active 142 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 139 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $115,000 Active 138 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 137 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 136 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 134 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $120,000 Active 130 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 129 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $120,000 Active 128 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $120,000 Active 125 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 122 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 121 DOM
13. 2026-03-12
    price $125,000 908-char remark

    Show marketing remark (908 chars)

    This beautiful 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath condo is ideally located between Richmond and Gessner in the Tanglewilde South community. Welcome home to Unit 9461, featuring a spacious primary bedroom with a large walk-in closet and an ensuite bath with a tub/shower combination. The open family area offers generous living space with tile flooring throughout. One of the secondary bedrooms is conveniently located downstairs and includes an updated full bath. The home also provides a nicely sized breakfast/dining area. Upstairs, the primary bedroom includes access to a private balcony. The kitchen offers ample cabinet space and granite countertops. Residents can enjoy the community’s refreshing pool and well-maintained common areas. This prime location offers quick access to the Sam Houston Tollway, Westpark Tollway, 610, I-10, and Hwy 59, along with an abundance of nearby restaurants and retail options.

14. 2026-02-19
    price $129,000 908-char remark

    Show marketing remark (908 chars)

    This beautiful 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath condo is ideally located between Richmond and Gessner in the Tanglewilde South community. Welcome home to Unit 9461, featuring a spacious primary bedroom with a large walk-in closet and an ensuite bath with a tub/shower combination. The open family area offers generous living space with tile flooring throughout. One of the secondary bedrooms is conveniently located downstairs and includes an updated full bath. The home also provides a nicely sized breakfast/dining area. Upstairs, the primary bedroom includes access to a private balcony. The kitchen offers ample cabinet space and granite countertops. Residents can enjoy the community’s refreshing pool and well-maintained common areas. This prime location offers quick access to the Sam Houston Tollway, Westpark Tollway, 610, I-10, and Hwy 59, along with an abundance of nearby restaurants and retail options.

15. 2026-01-31
    listed $138,000 Active 908-char remark

    Show marketing remark (908 chars)

    This beautiful 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath condo is ideally located between Richmond and Gessner in the Tanglewilde South community. Welcome home to Unit 9461, featuring a spacious primary bedroom with a large walk-in closet and an ensuite bath with a tub/shower combination. The open family area offers generous living space with tile flooring throughout. One of the secondary bedrooms is conveniently located downstairs and includes an updated full bath. The home also provides a nicely sized breakfast/dining area. Upstairs, the primary bedroom includes access to a private balcony. The kitchen offers ample cabinet space and granite countertops. Residents can enjoy the community’s refreshing pool and well-maintained common areas. This prime location offers quick access to the Sam Houston Tollway, Westpark Tollway, 610, I-10, and Hwy 59, along with an abundance of nearby restaurants and retail options.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 65% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,968
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,725
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,357
• − Management: −$1,357
• − HOA: −$4,980
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable loss: −$2,814
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$675
• After-tax cash flow: $-436/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath townhouse in Tanglewilde South is in good condition with a good ROI potential for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior fence — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior fence — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,690
• Household income: $59,113
• Rent vs Own: 76.0% rent · 24.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 3541.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 33% White 29% Black 21% Two or more races 17% Asian 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Arab 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 43% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 30% Other Indo-European 8% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -241.42%
• Current HPI: 194.3803
• Rent YoY: ▼ -6.28%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $125,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $129,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-31 Listed $138,000 HARMLS