217 Sagehill

Granite Shoals, TX 78654

$200,000D-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,244 sqft · Built 1965 · SingleFamily · Active · 92 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,550/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax + insurance: −$350
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $-174/mo
• Annual: $-2,091/yr
• Cap rate: 5.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.73%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $56,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-174 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $169k (15.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (22.5% below list).
• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $155k (22.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#684 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Marble Falls ISD (town): math 32% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #511 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Highland Lakes El (math 19% / reading 18%, grade F, #3,759 of 4,322 statewide, top 88%, 542 students, 90% FRL); Marble Falls Middle (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #858 of 1,662 statewide, top 54%, 911 students, 67% FRL); Marble Falls H S (math 29% / reading 47%, grade F, #880 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 1,145 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 52% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 764 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 891 units permitted in Burnet County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Burnet County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $200k implies a 401% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 53% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 1.1% in Granite Shoals — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.