217 Sagehill · Granite Shoals, TX 78654

$200,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,244 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 92 Days on market

Built 1965 10,018 sqft lot $161/sqft · 22% below area Est $290k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.5/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

One of the most affordable stick-built homes in the area. Updated bath, newer tile and wood floors, Newer Sunroom and HVAC plus a bonus room (attched garage conversion). Most exterior walls are concrete block construction; very sturdy building. Might be able to leave appliances. Fenced backyard with greenhouse and nice shade-trees. LARGE 2-car garage with Workshop space and more. Vaulted, Beamed Ceilings. Waterfront boat ramp access.

Key facts

• Updated bath
• Newer sunroom
• Greenhouse

Tags

• UPDATED BATH
• NEWER SUNROOM
• FENCED BACKYARD
• GREENHOUSE
• WATERFRONT BOAT RAMP ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-174 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $169k (15.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (22.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $155k (22.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 1.1% in Granite Shoals — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#684 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Marble Falls ISD (town): math 32% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #511 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 764 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 891 units permitted in Burnet County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burnet County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $200k implies a 401% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 53% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,028 (22.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.73%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $289,863
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: -31.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
301 Cedarhill Dr	0.21mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,272 (+2%)	0mo	$269,000	$211	75
303 Cedarhill Dr	0.22mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,272 (+2%)	3mo	$265,000	$208	72
403 Hilldale Dr	0.35mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,272 (+2%)	8mo	$299,000	$235	62
306 Hilldale Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,381 (+11%)	8mo	$285,000	$206	58
306 Hilldale Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,381 (+11%)	8mo	$285,000	$206	58
307 Cedarhill Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,381 (+11%)	9mo	$295,000	$214	55
402 S Timberhill Dr	0.44mi	2/1.0	1,328 (+7%)	18mo	$199,000	$150	53
308 Hilldale Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,381 (+11%)	18mo	$299,000	$217	49
131 Oakwood Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,298 (+4%)	16mo	$298,500	$230	47
309 Cedarhill Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,381 (+11%)	19mo	$299,000	$217	46
414 E Castleshoals Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,322 (+6%)	18mo	$760,000	$575	43
106 E Pine Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,354 (+9%)	6mo	$280,000	$207	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-48,019
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -36.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.31×
• Total profit: $-73,528
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78654

• Home prices YoY: -31.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 764
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,550 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$267 /mo · $3,202/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $-174

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,771

Max offer price $169,211

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-61	-5% $-118	+0% $-174	+5% $-231	+10% $-288
Rent	-10% $-297	-5% $-236	+0% $-174	+5% $-113	+10% $-52
Rate	-1.0pp $-74	-0.5pp $-123	base $-174	+0.5pp $-226	+1.0pp $-279

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
217 E Castleshoals Dr Granite Shoals, TX	3.0	2.0	1020	$1,350	$1.32	45d	1	0.32mi
1202 N Mystic Dr Granite Shoals, TX	3.0	2.5	1404	$2,199	$1.57	13d	1	0.78mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $200,000 Active 92 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 84 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 83 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active 79 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $200,000 Active 78 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $200,000 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $200,000 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active 72 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 71 DOM
15. 2026-03-21
    listed $200,000 New 441-char remark

    Show marketing remark (441 chars)

    One of the most affordable stick-built homes in the area. Updated bath, newer tile and wood floors, Newer Sunroom and HVAC plus a bonus room (attched garage conversion). Most exterior walls are concrete block construction; very sturdy building. Might be able to leave appliances. Fenced backyard with greenhouse and nice shade-trees. LARGE 2-car garage with Workshop space and more. Vaulted, Beamed Ceilings. Waterfront boat ramp access.

16. 2023-03-23
    soldstatus 857-char remark

    Show marketing remark (857 chars)

    Affordable living near Lake LBJ! Cute, 2/1/2 with new tile floors, updated bath, updated kitchen, all new sunroom with new windows, new doors, and new window hvac unit, plus a large bonus room(garage conversion). Mostly sturdy concrete block construction. Large and spacious living room with wood beamed ceiling and cozy corner wood burning stove. New tile floors in the kitchen, new Quartz countertops and new Italian tile backsplash, new stainless steel electric range, and side-by-side refrigerator; what a great kitchen to cook in! Level yard with nice shade trees, fenced backyard for pets and play area, greenhouse, detached oversized 2-car garage with workshop space. Ample parking with two driveways. Walking distance to Lake LBJ! Perfect starter or retirement home or weekend getaway near the lake! You must check out this darling well priced home!

17. 2019-07-08
    soldstatus
18. 2019-06-14
    soldstatus Sold
19. 2019-06-12
    status Pending - Taking Backups
20. 2018-10-08
    listed $138,000 Active
21. 2018-10-05
    listed $123,600 857-char remark

    Show marketing remark (857 chars)

    Affordable living near Lake LBJ! Cute, 2/1/2 with new tile floors, updated bath, updated kitchen, all new sunroom with new windows, new doors, and new window hvac unit, plus a large bonus room(garage conversion). Mostly sturdy concrete block construction. Large and spacious living room with wood beamed ceiling and cozy corner wood burning stove. New tile floors in the kitchen, new Quartz countertops and new Italian tile backsplash, new stainless steel electric range, and side-by-side refrigerator; what a great kitchen to cook in! Level yard with nice shade trees, fenced backyard for pets and play area, greenhouse, detached oversized 2-car garage with workshop space. Ample parking with two driveways. Walking distance to Lake LBJ! Perfect starter or retirement home or weekend getaway near the lake! You must check out this darling well priced home!

22. 1993-08-01
    soldstatus $39,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,202 · $267/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,660 · $305/mo
• Expected delta: +$458/yr (+$38/mo · 14.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 53% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,603
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,202
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,488
• − Management: −$1,488
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$5,597
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,343
• After-tax cash flow: $-748/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marble Falls ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829010
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,663
• Composite: 30.3/100
• National rank: #6278
• State rank: #511 of 826 in TX

Livability — Granite Shoals

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #684
• US rank: #12785

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Granite Shoals, TX
• County: Burnet County · 35,210 people
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,650
• Household income: $74,130
• Rent vs Own: 33.3% rent · 66.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 354.0

Population outlook (Burnet County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,492 people
• By 2030: 52,995 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 57,528 · +13.9%
• By 2050: 61,444 · +21.7%
• By 2075: 71,098 · +40.8%
• By 2100: 74,634 · +47.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Burnet

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.7) · D 21.7% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: -44.1pp · 2024: -55.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.7 2020: R+53.1 2016: R+56.8 2012: R+54.6 2008: R+44.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.02%
• Current HPI: 252.9861
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.62%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+401.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-21 Listed $200,000 LERA
• 2023-03-23 Sold (MLS) — HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2019-07-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-06-14 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2019-06-12 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2018-10-08 Listed $138,000 Unlock MLS
• 2018-10-05 Listed $123,600 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 1993-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $39,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,202 · +12.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.