4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
2,112 sqft ·
Built 2004
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 18 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$4,779/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$3,141
Tax + insurance
−$703
HOA
−$225
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$1,004
Net cashflow
$-294/mo
Annual
$-3,532/yr
Cap rate
5.70%
Cash-on-cash
-2.11%
DSCR
0.91
1% rule
0.80%
Cash to close
$167,720
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $599k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-294 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $547k (8.7% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $478k (20.2% below list).
It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($590k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $478k (20.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 58/100 on livability (#694 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: commute A-, employment B+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
Desert Sands Unified (suburban): math 31% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #199 of 517 in CA (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: James Monroe Elementary (581 students, 64% FRL); Colonel Mitchell Paige Middle (math 10% / reading 10%, grade F, #474 of 498 statewide, top 99%, 436 students, 74% FRL); Palm Desert High (math 42% / reading 67%, grade C-, #256 of 1,170 statewide, top 24%, 2,050 students, 57% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.5%/yr); 660 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $51k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $294k; list at $599k implies a 103% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.3% in La Quinta — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $4,779/mo this rent would consume 58% of the median local household income ($99k/yr) (locally 1078% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-6ZDFNJBPEZCPAB
· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29