278 Shadow Lakes Dr

Lehigh Acres, FL 33974

$269,900C

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,853 sqft · Built 2016 · SingleFamily · Active · 117 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,301/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax + insurance: −$331
• HOA: −$99
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $-27/mo
• Annual: $-322/yr
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.43%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $75,572

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-27 ($-322/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $265k (1.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (14.7% below list).
• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $230k (14.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#826 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, schools D-.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.7%/yr); 2460 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $13k; list at $270k implies a 2014% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $76k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.7% in Lehigh Acres — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.