278 Shadow Lakes Dr · Lehigh Acres, FL 33974

$269,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,853 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 117 Days on market

Built 2016 6,499 sqft lot Est $334k · 19% under $99/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.3/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this 2016-built, spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offering over 1,850 sq ft backed to lake in the highly desirable gated Shadow Lakes community featuring LOW HOA and city water & sewer. This open-concept floor plan has been freshly painted and showcases an award-winning kitchen with spacious countertops, newer appliances, a large pantry, and a welcoming breakfast bar—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Enjoy outdoor living on the 16x8 back patio. Additional highlights include dual vanities, recessed lighting, a laundry room under air, and a spacious walk-in closet. This pet friendly community is Peacefully tucked away yet walking distance to community ameniti

Key facts

• Dual vanities
• 16x8 back patio
• Recessed lighting

Tags

• GATED SHADOW LAKES COMMUNITY
• AWARD-WINNING KITCHEN
• 16X8 BACK PATIO
• DUAL VANITIES
• RECESSED LIGHTING
• LAUNDRY ROOM UNDER AIR

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with $99 monthly fee; Association covers road maintenance, street lights, and trash; Association amenities include playground, park, and management; Gated community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Driveway parking; Paved parking; Garage with garage door opener; Two covered spaces
• Security: Gated community with security gate; Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; High-speed internet available; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single-story home; Faces south; Entry level 1; Resale condition
• Construction: Block, concrete, and stucco construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Open patio and porch; Patio; Porch; Room for pool; Sprinkler/automatic irrigation; Shutters (manual); Lake waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Breakfast area; Separate/formal dining room; Kitchen island; Living/dining room combo; Pantry; Dual sinks; Shower only (separate shower); Cable TV available; Walk-in closet(s); Window treatments; Split bedrooms; Bedroom on main level
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup inside; Dryer hookup inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-27 ($-322/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $265k (1.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (14.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $230k (14.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.7% in Lehigh Acres — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#826 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, schools D-.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.7%/yr); 2460 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $76k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $13k; list at $270k implies a 2014% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $230,137 (14.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.43%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $333,540
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
218 Lomax Ave S	0.35mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,713 (-8%)	3mo	$275,000	$161	61
212 Lausanne Ave	0.32mi	4/2.0	1,638 (-12%)	6mo	$340,000	$208	61
252 Moonlit Lake Trl	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,742 (-6%)	3mo	$345,500	$198	58
723 Cadis St E	0.56mi	4/2.0	1,700 (-8%)	4mo	$319,000	$188	57
706 Monet St	0.68mi	4/2.0	1,857 (+0%)	21mo	$305,000	$164	51
626 Linville Pl	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,608 (-13%)	4mo	$290,000	$180	48
763 Cadis St E	0.59mi	4/2.0	1,600 (-14%)	3mo	$310,000	$194	47
313 Lancelot Ave	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,957 (+6%)	14mo	$324,900	$166	44
200 Danby Rd	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,678 (-9%)	3mo	$289,000	$172	43
833 Sentinela Blvd	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,639 (-12%)	10mo	$260,000	$159	41
320 Laurel Ave	0.75mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,652 (-11%)	2mo	$250,000	$151	40
226 Lomax Ave S	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,650 (-11%)	24mo	$365,000	$221	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.83×
• Total profit: $138,563
• Equity at exit: $243,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.26×
• Total profit: $397,358
• Equity at exit: $524,356

Cash invested: $75,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33974

• Home prices YoY: 5.8%
• Rents YoY: -4.7%
• Active inventory: 2460
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,301 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax from tax record: −$218 /mo · $2,617/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$99
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $-27

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,335

Max offer price $265,159

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $126	-5% $50	+0% $-27	+5% $-103	+10% $-180
Rent	-10% $-209	-5% $-118	+0% $-27	+5% $64	+10% $155
Rate	-1.0pp $109	-0.5pp $42	base $-27	+0.5pp $-97	+1.0pp $-168

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,475
• Closing costs: $8,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
321 Shadow Lakes Dr Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	3.0	2313	$3,000	$1.30	4d	1	0.11mi
719 Center Lake St Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1616	$1,750	$1.08	24d	1	0.22mi
217 Jayview Ave Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1491	$1,600	$1.07	15d	1	0.41mi
230 E Malden Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$1,875	$1.02	24d	1	0.45mi
219 Beckley Dr Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.5	1548	$1,890	$1.22	17d	1	0.46mi
129 Wanatah Ave Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1798	$1,911	$1.06	4d	1	0.48mi
242 S Lake Dr Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1572	$1,600	$1.02	24d	1	0.51mi
815 Porter St E Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1659	$1,800	$1.08	24d	1	0.53mi
202 Eaglesmere Dr Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1443	$1,695	$1.17	24d	1	0.53mi
202 Eaglesmere Dr Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1443	$1,600	$1.11	4d	1	0.53mi
706 Arianne Ct Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	3.0	2009	$2,600	$1.29	24d	1	0.55mi
1406 Ford Cir Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.5	1662	$2,100	$1.26	24d	1	0.61mi
270 Silent Lake Dr Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1800	$1,895	$1.05	12d	1	0.62mi
107 W Lake Dr Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1610	$2,100	$1.30	24d	1	0.69mi
1440 Graham Cir Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1767	$2,300	$1.30	24d	1	0.72mi
1101 Leeland Heights Blvd E Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,350	$1.08	17d	1	0.76mi
127 Highview Ave Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,860	$1.24	4d	1	0.79mi
727 Cane St E Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1582	$2,000	$1.26	24d	1	0.81mi
312 Lenz Ave Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.5	2208	$2,500	$1.13	24d	1	0.83mi
286 Justene Cir Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1839	$1,900	$1.03	24d	1	0.85mi
750 Cane St E Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	3.0	1537	$2,800	$1.82	4d	1	0.86mi
912 Anthony St E Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.5	1548	$1,890	$1.22	17d	1	0.96mi
264 Ground Dove Cir Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1683	$2,300	$1.37	24d	1	0.97mi
226 North Ave Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1758	$1,806	$1.03	4d	1	0.99mi
506 Corinne Dr Unit 506 Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1706	$2,300	$1.35	24d	1	1.06mi
825 Carbon St E Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1582	$2,300	$1.45	24d	1	1.09mi
101 Edward Ave Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1531	$3,200	$2.09	24d	1	1.12mi
222 Ground Dove Cir Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1417	$1,695	$1.20	11d	1	1.13mi
311 Inman St Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1604	$2,300	$1.43	24d	1	1.15mi
430 Bell Blvd Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	2526	$1,600	$0.63	24d	1	1.15mi
940 Belmont St E Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1838	$2,850	$1.55	24d	1	1.22mi
321 Briggs Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	3.0	2372	$2,400	$1.01	24d	1	1.26mi
907 E 3rd St Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1531	$1,710	$1.12	24d	1	1.27mi
104 McKinley Ave Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1756	$1,950	$1.11	24d	1	1.35mi
532 Ilaria Ct Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1598	$2,300	$1.44	17d	1	1.36mi
720 Chavers St Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1547	$2,200	$1.42	24d	1	1.37mi
477 Rayford St Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	3.0	1715	$2,000	$1.17	24d	1	1.44mi
472 Rajah St Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1715	$2,200	$1.28	4d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $99 · $1,188/yr
• Likely covers: watersewersecurity

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,900 Active 117 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,900 Active 116 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,900 Active 115 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,900 Active 113 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $269,900 Active 110 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $269,900 Active 109 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $269,900 Active 107 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $269,900 Active 102 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $269,900 Active 101 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $269,900 Active 100 DOM
11. 2026-02-20
    historical
12. 2026-02-20
    listed $269,900 Active
13. 2025-12-15
    listed $279,900 Active
14. 2017-04-07
    historical
15. 2017-02-10
    listed $200,900 Active
16. 2017-01-19
    status Active
17. 2016-12-10
    historical
18. 2016-11-04
    status Pending
19. 2016-07-01
    price $209,900
20. 2016-06-10
    listed $199,900 Active
21. 2015-08-10
    soldstatus $12,768
22. 2011-05-10
    soldstatus $850,000
23. 2008-11-10
    soldstatus $5,625,000
24. 2004-06-04
    soldstatus $4,950,000
25. 2004-06-03
    soldstatus $1,191,300
26. 1999-11-30
    soldstatus $7,500
27. 1999-11-24
    soldstatus $7,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,617 · $218/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,617 · $218/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,616
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,119
• − Property taxes: −$2,617
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,209
• − Management: −$2,209
• − HOA: −$1,188
• − Depreciation: −$7,852
• Taxable loss: −$4,927
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,182
• After-tax cash flow: $860/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lehigh Acres

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #826
• US rank: #20055

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lehigh Acres, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 130,638
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 19,927
• Household income: $72,192
• Rent vs Own: 27.3% rent · 72.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 434.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% Two or more races 31% White 26% Black 18%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 20% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 7% Italian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 43% French/Haitian/Cajun 7% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.53%
• Current HPI: 303.3399
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.68%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+3498.7% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-20 Listed $269,900 FORTMLS
• 2026-02-20 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2025-12-15 Listed $279,900 FORTMLS
• 2017-04-07 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2017-02-10 Listed $200,900 FORTMLS
• 2017-01-19 Relisted — FORTMLS
• 2016-12-10 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2016-11-04 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2016-07-01 Price Changed $209,900 FORTMLS
• 2016-06-10 Listed $199,900 FORTMLS
• 2015-08-10 Sold (Public Records) $12,768 Public Records
• 2011-05-10 Sold (Public Records) $850,000 Public Records
• 2008-11-10 Sold (Public Records) $5,625,000 Public Records
• 2004-06-04 Sold (Public Records) $4,950,000 Public Records
• 2004-06-03 Sold (Public Records) $1,191,300 Public Records
• 1999-11-30 Sold (Public Records) $7,500 Public Records
• 1999-11-24 Sold (Public Records) $7,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+27.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,617 · +6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.