Jonquil Duo Plan

Aurora, CO 80019

$430,950F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,470 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 769 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,992/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,835
• Tax + insurance: −$901
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$628
• Net cashflow: $-1,372/mo
• Annual: $-16,464/yr
• Cap rate: 3.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.88%
• DSCR: 0.52
• 1% rule: 0.55%
• Cash to close: $151,360

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $431k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $342k (20.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $299k (30.6% below list).
• It's been on market 769 days — a 12% lower offer ($379k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $299k (30.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#70 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: schools D-, crime F, cost of living F.
• School District 27J (suburban): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #46 of 86 in CO (top 54%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,299 units permitted in Adams County in 2024 (343 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Adams County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 769 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.