Jonquil Duo Plan · Aurora, CO 80019

$430,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,470 sqft · SingleFamily · 769 Days on market

↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +4.6/30.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Appreciation +3.4/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The ranch-style Jonquil Duo plan offers a sought-after open layout, centered around an inviting great room. An adjacent kitchen with a pantry and a center island is perfect for culinary pursuits. You'll also find a dining area, plus a covered patio included on select homesites. A well-appointed primary suite is steps away, featuring an oversized walk-in closet and an attached bath. Two additional bedrooms flank a bath and a laundry. A 2-car garage completes this paired plan. This home is built with either a study or a third bedroom.

Key facts

• <covered patio>
• <center island>
• <open layout>

Tags

• <OPEN LAYOUT>
• <INVITING GREAT ROOM>
• <CENTER ISLAND>
• <COVERED PATIO>
• <WELL-APPOINTED PRIMARY SUITE>
• <OVERSIZED WALK-IN CLOSET>

🏗️ New construction. The $430,950 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $540,570.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $431k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $342k (20.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $299k (30.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $299k (30.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#70 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: schools D-, crime F, cost of living F.
• School District 27J (suburban): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #46 of 86 in CO (top 54%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,299 units permitted in Adams County in 2024 (343 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Adams County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 769 days — a 12% lower offer ($379k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $299,208 (30.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 769 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.55% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.88%
• DSCR: 0.52
• GRM: 15.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $540,570
• List price: $430,950
• Delta: -20.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6574 N Malta St	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,542 (+5%)	14mo	$489,950	$318	78

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -36.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.16×
• Total profit: $-174,935
• Equity at exit: $80,601

10-year hold

• IRR: -49.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.75×
• Total profit: $-264,668
• Equity at exit: $46,739

Cash invested: $151,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 80019

• Home prices YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,992 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,835
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$676 /mo · $8,109/yr
• Insurance: −$225
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$628
• Net cashflow: $-1,372

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,729

Max offer price $342,037

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $135,143
• Closing costs: $16,217
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6650 N Lisbon St Aurora, CO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	958	$2,489	$2.60	1d	38	0.11mi
21244 E 65th Dr Aurora, CO	3.0	2.5	1653	$2,700	$1.63	14d	1	0.12mi
21775 E 65th Ave Aurora, CO	3.0	1.0–2.0	1009	$3,192	$3.16	1d	201	0.42mi
21650 E 56th Ave Aurora, CO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	938	$2,682	$2.86	1d	91	1.23mi
19182 E 62nd Ave Denver, CO	3.0	2.5	1461	$3,024	$2.07	1d	12	1.29mi
6026 N Ceylon St Denver, CO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1086	$2,713	$2.50	1d	12	1.36mi
19290 E 59th Ave Denver, CO	3.0–4.0	2.5	1762	$3,099	$1.76	1d	4	1.41mi
5959 N Dunkirk St Denver, CO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1018	$2,130	$2.09	2d	12	1.46mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $430,950 Active 769 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $430,950 Active 768 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $430,950 Active 767 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $430,950 Active 766 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $430,950 Active 764 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $430,950 Active 763 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $430,950 Active 760 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $430,950 Active 759 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $430,950 Active 758 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $430,950 Active 755 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $430,950 Active 754 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $430,950 Active 753 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $430,950 Active 752 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $430,950 Active 751 DOM
15. 2026-04-28
    price $430,950 538-char remark

    Show marketing remark (538 chars)

    The ranch-style Jonquil Duo plan offers a sought-after open layout, centered around an inviting great room. An adjacent kitchen with a pantry and a center island is perfect for culinary pursuits. You'll also find a dining area, plus a covered patio included on select homesites. A well-appointed primary suite is steps away, featuring an oversized walk-in closet and an attached bath. Two additional bedrooms flank a bath and a laundry. A 2-car garage completes this paired plan. This home is built with either a study or a third bedroom.

16. 2026-03-17
    price $427,950 538-char remark

    Show marketing remark (538 chars)

    The ranch-style Jonquil Duo plan offers a sought-after open layout, centered around an inviting great room. An adjacent kitchen with a pantry and a center island is perfect for culinary pursuits. You'll also find a dining area, plus a covered patio included on select homesites. A well-appointed primary suite is steps away, featuring an oversized walk-in closet and an attached bath. Two additional bedrooms flank a bath and a laundry. A 2-car garage completes this paired plan. This home is built with either a study or a third bedroom.

17. 2026-01-13
    price $424,950 538-char remark

    Show marketing remark (538 chars)

    The ranch-style Jonquil Duo plan offers a sought-after open layout, centered around an inviting great room. An adjacent kitchen with a pantry and a center island is perfect for culinary pursuits. You'll also find a dining area, plus a covered patio included on select homesites. A well-appointed primary suite is steps away, featuring an oversized walk-in closet and an attached bath. Two additional bedrooms flank a bath and a laundry. A 2-car garage completes this paired plan. This home is built with either a study or a third bedroom.

18. 2025-10-21
    price $454,950 538-char remark

    Show marketing remark (538 chars)

    The ranch-style Jonquil Duo plan offers a sought-after open layout, centered around an inviting great room. An adjacent kitchen with a pantry and a center island is perfect for culinary pursuits. You'll also find a dining area, plus a covered patio included on select homesites. A well-appointed primary suite is steps away, featuring an oversized walk-in closet and an attached bath. Two additional bedrooms flank a bath and a laundry. A 2-car garage completes this paired plan. This home is built with either a study or a third bedroom.

19. 2025-01-01
    price $490,950 538-char remark

    Show marketing remark (538 chars)

    The ranch-style Jonquil Duo plan offers a sought-after open layout, centered around an inviting great room. An adjacent kitchen with a pantry and a center island is perfect for culinary pursuits. You'll also find a dining area, plus a covered patio included on select homesites. A well-appointed primary suite is steps away, featuring an oversized walk-in closet and an attached bath. Two additional bedrooms flank a bath and a laundry. A 2-car garage completes this paired plan. This home is built with either a study or a third bedroom.

20. 2024-11-01
    price $475,950 538-char remark

    Show marketing remark (538 chars)

    The ranch-style Jonquil Duo plan offers a sought-after open layout, centered around an inviting great room. An adjacent kitchen with a pantry and a center island is perfect for culinary pursuits. You'll also find a dining area, plus a covered patio included on select homesites. A well-appointed primary suite is steps away, featuring an oversized walk-in closet and an attached bath. Two additional bedrooms flank a bath and a laundry. A 2-car garage completes this paired plan. This home is built with either a study or a third bedroom.

21. 2024-08-20
    price $470,950 538-char remark

    Show marketing remark (538 chars)

    The ranch-style Jonquil Duo plan offers a sought-after open layout, centered around an inviting great room. An adjacent kitchen with a pantry and a center island is perfect for culinary pursuits. You'll also find a dining area, plus a covered patio included on select homesites. A well-appointed primary suite is steps away, featuring an oversized walk-in closet and an attached bath. Two additional bedrooms flank a bath and a laundry. A 2-car garage completes this paired plan. This home is built with either a study or a third bedroom.

22. 2024-07-03
    price $467,950 538-char remark

    Show marketing remark (538 chars)

    The ranch-style Jonquil Duo plan offers a sought-after open layout, centered around an inviting great room. An adjacent kitchen with a pantry and a center island is perfect for culinary pursuits. You'll also find a dining area, plus a covered patio included on select homesites. A well-appointed primary suite is steps away, featuring an oversized walk-in closet and an attached bath. Two additional bedrooms flank a bath and a laundry. A 2-car garage completes this paired plan. This home is built with either a study or a third bedroom.

23. 2024-05-10
    listed $465,950 Active 538-char remark

    Show marketing remark (538 chars)

    The ranch-style Jonquil Duo plan offers a sought-after open layout, centered around an inviting great room. An adjacent kitchen with a pantry and a center island is perfect for culinary pursuits. You'll also find a dining area, plus a covered patio included on select homesites. A well-appointed primary suite is steps away, featuring an oversized walk-in closet and an attached bath. Two additional bedrooms flank a bath and a laundry. A 2-car garage completes this paired plan. This home is built with either a study or a third bedroom.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,905
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,280
• − Property taxes: −$8,109
• − Insurance: −$2,703
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,872
• − Management: −$2,872
• − Depreciation: −$15,726
• Taxable loss: −$26,657
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,398
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,066/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: School District 27J
• NCES district ID: 0802580
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $79,576
• Composite: 27.72/100
• National rank: #6904
• State rank: #46 of 86 in CO

Livability — Aurora

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #70
• US rank: #6441

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aurora, CO
• County: Adams County · 464,133 people
• City population: 397,430
• Metro: Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO
• Population (ZIP): 7,900
• Household income: $129,154
• Rent vs Own: 14.5% rent · 85.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 68.0

Population outlook (Adams County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 598,184 people
• By 2030: 651,880 · +9.0%
• By 2040: 759,778 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 862,889 · +44.3%
• By 2075: 1,085,994 · +81.5%
• By 2100: 1,211,318 · +102.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 32% White 23% Two or more races 13% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Iranian 1% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 35% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 23% French/Haitian/Cajun 7% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Adams

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.0) · D 53.2% · R 44.1% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.3pp toward R · 2008: 18.4pp · 2024: 9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.0 2020: D+16.3 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+15.1 2008: D+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.11%
• Current HPI: 214.7767
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

-7.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $430,950 Zillow
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $427,950 Zillow
• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $424,950 Zillow
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $454,950 Zillow
• 2025-01-01 Price Changed $490,950 Zillow
• 2024-11-01 Price Changed $475,950 Zillow
• 2024-08-20 Price Changed $470,950 Zillow
• 2024-07-03 Price Changed $467,950 Zillow
• 2024-05-10 Listed $465,950 Zillow