125 SE Estate Loop

Winston, OR 97496

$66,000B-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Built 1980 · Manufactured · Pending · 172 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,289/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$346
• Tax + insurance: −$63
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$271
• Net cashflow: $609/mo
• Annual: $7,311/yr
• Cap rate: 17.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.56%
• DSCR: 2.76
• 1% rule: 1.95%
• Cash to close: $18,480

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $66k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $609 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $66k).
• It's been on market 172 days — a 12% lower offer ($58k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $58k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $456 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#185 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Winston-Dillard SD 116 (rural): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #56 of 58 in OR (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 76 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 190 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Douglas County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $56k; 19% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 17.4% vs local median 2.7% in Winston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 172 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.