125 SE Estate Loop · Winston, OR 97496

$66,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 172 Days on market

Built 1980 $57/sqft · 59% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Take in breathtaking views of Umpqua Valley and the surrounding mountains from this spacious manufactured home located in a welcoming 55+ community. Unwind on the large covered front porch. Featuring a metal roof, double-pane vinyl windows, and a sturdy concrete block foundation, this home offers lasting durability. Stay comfortable year-round with the newer heat pump installed in 2022. Additionally, a covered carport for parking and a powered workshop with built-in shelving—ideal for hobbies or extra storage. A wonderful place to call home!

Key facts

• Breathtaking views
• Metal roof
• Newer heat pump

Tags

• BREATHTAKING VIEWS
• LARGE COVERED FRONT PORCH
• METAL ROOF
• DOUBLE-PANE VINYL WINDOWS
• CONCRETE BLOCK FOUNDATION
• NEWER HEAT PUMP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $66k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $609 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $66k).
• Recommended offer: $58k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.4% vs local median 2.7% in Winston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#185 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Winston-Dillard SD 116 (rural): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #56 of 58 in OR (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 76 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 190 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $456 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Douglas County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 172 days — a 12% lower offer ($58k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $56k; 19% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $58,080 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 172 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.95% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.56%
• DSCR: 2.76
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $161,250
• List price: $66,000
• Delta: -59.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
751 SE Meadowood Dr	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,120 (-3%)	0mo	$190,000	$170	87
891 SE Meadowood Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,188 (+3%)	18mo	$200,000	$168	70
112 SE Twin Oaks Loop	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (+12%)	3mo	$132,500	$102	64
241 Twin Oaks Loop	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (+12%)	4mo	$85,000	$66	62
265 SE Grape Ave	0.52mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,080 (-6%)	3mo	$250,000	$231	58
81 SE Edwards Ave	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (+12%)	23mo	$305,000	$235	20

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $28,098
• Equity at exit: $9,841

10-year hold

• IRR: 42.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.03×
• Total profit: $74,393
• Equity at exit: $5,706

Cash invested: $18,480 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97496

• Home prices YoY: -15.0%
• Active inventory: 76
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,289 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$346
• Tax from tax record: −$36 /mo · $427/yr
• Insurance: −$28
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$271
• Net cashflow: $609

Break-even live

Break-even rent $518

Max offer price $66,000

Occupancy floor 48%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,500
• Closing costs: $1,980
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
214 SE Darrell Ave Winston, OR	2.0	1.0	780	$950	$1.22	43d	1	0.58mi
133 Rolling Hills Rd Roseburg, OR	3.0	2.0	1196	$1,900	$1.59	43d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-01-07
   status Active 553-char remark

   Show marketing remark (553 chars)

   Take in breathtaking views of Umpqua Valley and the surrounding mountains from this spacious manufactured home located in a welcoming 55+ community. Unwind on the large covered front porch. Featuring a metal roof, double-pane vinyl windows, and a sturdy concrete block foundation, this home offers lasting durability. Stay comfortable year-round with the newer heat pump installed in 2022. Additionally, a covered carport for parking and a powered workshop with built-in shelving—ideal for hobbies or extra storage. A wonderful place to call home!

2. 2025-12-19
   status Pending 553-char remark

   Show marketing remark (553 chars)

   Take in breathtaking views of Umpqua Valley and the surrounding mountains from this spacious manufactured home located in a welcoming 55+ community. Unwind on the large covered front porch. Featuring a metal roof, double-pane vinyl windows, and a sturdy concrete block foundation, this home offers lasting durability. Stay comfortable year-round with the newer heat pump installed in 2022. Additionally, a covered carport for parking and a powered workshop with built-in shelving—ideal for hobbies or extra storage. A wonderful place to call home!

3. 2025-12-08
   price $66,000 553-char remark

   Show marketing remark (553 chars)

   Take in breathtaking views of Umpqua Valley and the surrounding mountains from this spacious manufactured home located in a welcoming 55+ community. Unwind on the large covered front porch. Featuring a metal roof, double-pane vinyl windows, and a sturdy concrete block foundation, this home offers lasting durability. Stay comfortable year-round with the newer heat pump installed in 2022. Additionally, a covered carport for parking and a powered workshop with built-in shelving—ideal for hobbies or extra storage. A wonderful place to call home!

4. 2025-11-12
   listed $72,000 Active 553-char remark

   Show marketing remark (553 chars)

   Take in breathtaking views of Umpqua Valley and the surrounding mountains from this spacious manufactured home located in a welcoming 55+ community. Unwind on the large covered front porch. Featuring a metal roof, double-pane vinyl windows, and a sturdy concrete block foundation, this home offers lasting durability. Stay comfortable year-round with the newer heat pump installed in 2022. Additionally, a covered carport for parking and a powered workshop with built-in shelving—ideal for hobbies or extra storage. A wonderful place to call home!

5. 2022-08-03
   soldstatus $55,500 Closed 493-char remark

   Show marketing remark (493 chars)

   Spacious, well-maintained mobile in a 55+ park with pastoral and mountain views, only 15 minutes to Roseburg. Covered front porch. Metal roof, copper plumbing, new vinyl windows, updated kitchen and appliances.Custom honeycomb blinds throughout. Newer heat pump for efficient central air conditioning and heat. All appliances including frig, washer and dryer. Fenced dog run. Workshop with power and shelving. Space rent of $446 per month includes water, sewer & garbage. RV parking avail.

6. 2022-07-30
   status Pending 493-char remark

   Show marketing remark (493 chars)

   Spacious, well-maintained mobile in a 55+ park with pastoral and mountain views, only 15 minutes to Roseburg. Covered front porch. Metal roof, copper plumbing, new vinyl windows, updated kitchen and appliances.Custom honeycomb blinds throughout. Newer heat pump for efficient central air conditioning and heat. All appliances including frig, washer and dryer. Fenced dog run. Workshop with power and shelving. Space rent of $446 per month includes water, sewer & garbage. RV parking avail.

7. 2022-07-22
   status Pending 493-char remark

   Show marketing remark (493 chars)

   Spacious, well-maintained mobile in a 55+ park with pastoral and mountain views, only 15 minutes to Roseburg. Covered front porch. Metal roof, copper plumbing, new vinyl windows, updated kitchen and appliances.Custom honeycomb blinds throughout. Newer heat pump for efficient central air conditioning and heat. All appliances including frig, washer and dryer. Fenced dog run. Workshop with power and shelving. Space rent of $446 per month includes water, sewer & garbage. RV parking avail.

8. 2022-07-19
   listed $53,000 Active 493-char remark

   Show marketing remark (493 chars)

   Spacious, well-maintained mobile in a 55+ park with pastoral and mountain views, only 15 minutes to Roseburg. Covered front porch. Metal roof, copper plumbing, new vinyl windows, updated kitchen and appliances.Custom honeycomb blinds throughout. Newer heat pump for efficient central air conditioning and heat. All appliances including frig, washer and dryer. Fenced dog run. Workshop with power and shelving. Space rent of $446 per month includes water, sewer & garbage. RV parking avail.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $427 · $36/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $640 · $53/mo
• Expected delta: +$213/yr (+$18/mo · 49.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥95°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,470
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,697
• − Property taxes: −$427
• − Insurance: −$330
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,238
• − Management: −$1,238
• − Depreciation: −$1,920
• Taxable income: $6,621
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,589
• After-tax cash flow: $5,722/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Winston-Dillard SD 116
• NCES district ID: 4113490
• Math proficiency: 18% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,944
• Composite: 19.91/100
• National rank: #8682
• State rank: #56 of 58 in OR

Livability — Winston

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #185
• US rank: #11922

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winston, OR
• Population (ZIP): 7,557

Population outlook (Douglas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,191 people
• By 2030: 102,664 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 96,668 · -8.1%
• By 2050: 91,279 · -13.2%
• By 2075: 79,395 · -24.5%
• By 2100: 66,107 · -37.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Douglas

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.7) · D 29.9% · R 67.6% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -20.1pp · 2024: -37.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.7 2020: R+37.5 2016: R+39.4 2012: R+27.6 2008: R+20.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.23%
• Current HPI: 341.9441
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+24.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-07 Relisted — RMLS
• 2025-12-19 Pending — RMLS
• 2025-12-08 Price Changed $66,000 RMLS
• 2025-11-12 Listed $72,000 RMLS
• 2022-08-03 Sold (MLS) $55,500 RMLS
• 2022-07-30 Pending — RMLS
• 2022-07-22 Pending — RMLS
• 2022-07-19 Listed $53,000 RMLS

Property tax history

-0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $427 · -14.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.