9755 State Route 171

Herrick, PA 18470

$259,000D

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,955 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Pending · 32 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,175/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,358
• Tax + insurance: −$432
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$457
• Net cashflow: $-72/mo
• Annual: $-858/yr
• Cap rate: 5.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.18%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $72,520

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $259k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-72 ($-858/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $249k (4.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (16.0% below list).
• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $218k (16.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (4.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Forest City Regional SD (suburban): math 34% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #308 of 539 in PA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Forest City Regional El Sch (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #947 of 1,518 statewide, top 65%, 434 students, 55% FRL); Forest City Regional Hs (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #167 of 437 statewide, top 39%, 327 students, 85% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 43% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 80 units permitted in Susquehanna County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Susquehanna County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (4.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $73k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.