8405 Al-253

Twin, AL 35563

$174,000D

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,776 sqft · Built 1978 · SingleFamily · Active · 281 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,071/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$912
• Tax + insurance: −$290
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$225
• Net cashflow: $-357/mo
• Annual: $-4,279/yr
• Cap rate: 3.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.78%
• DSCR: 0.61
• 1% rule: 0.62%
• Cash to close: $48,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $174k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-357 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $122k (29.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $107k (38.5% below list).
• It's been on market 281 days — a 12% lower offer ($153k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $107k (38.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 45/100 on livability (#553 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Marion County (rural): math 20% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #56 of 129 in AL (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Marion County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 281 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.