8405 Al-253 · Twin, AL 35563

$174,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,776 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 279 Days on market

Built 1978 1.49 ac lot $98/sqft · 14% below area Est $203k · 14% under ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.7/30.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home set on an expansive 1.49 acres in the tranquil landscape of Guin, Alabama (Twin Community). This property's curb appeal & charming covered porch welcomes you, providing the ideal space to enjoy your morning coffee or relax in the evenings. The two living areas are designed for both relaxation and practicality. Featuring updated bathrooms with modern fixtures and finishes, some new flooring and room to make your own personal upgrades! This property also features a storm cellar, adding an extra layer of safety and peace of mind. For outdoor enthusiasts, the open sun deck provides a fantastic space for entertaining or enjoying the serene views of the expansive yard, perfect for gardening, play, or future outdoor projects. Let's go see it! Call for a private showing or virtual tour!

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Expansive yard
• Open sun deck

Tags

• COVERED PORCH
• STORM CELLAR
• OPEN SUN DECK
• EXPANSIVE YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $174k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-357 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $122k (29.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $107k (38.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $107k (38.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 45/100 on livability (#553 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Marion County (rural): math 20% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #56 of 129 in AL (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Marion County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 279 days — a 12% lower offer ($153k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $107,074 (38.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 279 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.78%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 13.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $203,112
• List price: $174,000
• Delta: -14.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.48×
• Total profit: $72,070
• Equity at exit: $156,753

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.72×
• Total profit: $230,126
• Equity at exit: $338,044

Cash invested: $48,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35563

• Home prices YoY: 17.2%
• Active inventory: 24
• Price-to-rent: 13.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,071 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$912
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$218 /mo · $2,610/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$225
• Net cashflow: $-357

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,522

Max offer price $122,401

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-236	-5% $-296	+0% $-357	+5% $-417	+10% $-477
Rent	-10% $-441	-5% $-399	+0% $-357	+5% $-314	+10% $-272
Rate	-1.0pp $-269	-0.5pp $-312	base $-357	+0.5pp $-402	+1.0pp $-448

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,500
• Closing costs: $5,220
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $174,000 Active 279 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $174,000 Active 278 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $174,000 Active 277 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $174,000 Active 276 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $174,000 Active 275 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $174,000 Active 273 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $174,000 Active 272 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $174,000 Active 269 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $174,000 Active 268 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $174,000 Active 267 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $174,000 Active 263 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $174,000 Active 262 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $174,000 Active 261 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $174,000 Active 260 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $174,000 Active 259 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    status Active 847-char remark

    Show marketing remark (847 chars)

    Welcome to this spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home set on an expansive 1.49 acres in the tranquil landscape of Guin, Alabama (Twin Community). This property's curb appeal & charming covered porch welcomes you, providing the ideal space to enjoy your morning coffee or relax in the evenings. The two living areas are designed for both relaxation and practicality. Featuring updated bathrooms with modern fixtures and finishes, some new flooring and room to make your own personal upgrades! This property also features a storm cellar, adding an extra layer of safety and peace of mind. For outdoor enthusiasts, the open sun deck provides a fantastic space for entertaining or enjoying the serene views of the expansive yard, perfect for gardening, play, or future outdoor projects. Let's go see it! Call for a private showing or virtual tour!

17. 2026-04-14
    historical Active Under Contract 847-char remark

    Show marketing remark (847 chars)

    Welcome to this spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home set on an expansive 1.49 acres in the tranquil landscape of Guin, Alabama (Twin Community). This property's curb appeal & charming covered porch welcomes you, providing the ideal space to enjoy your morning coffee or relax in the evenings. The two living areas are designed for both relaxation and practicality. Featuring updated bathrooms with modern fixtures and finishes, some new flooring and room to make your own personal upgrades! This property also features a storm cellar, adding an extra layer of safety and peace of mind. For outdoor enthusiasts, the open sun deck provides a fantastic space for entertaining or enjoying the serene views of the expansive yard, perfect for gardening, play, or future outdoor projects. Let's go see it! Call for a private showing or virtual tour!

18. 2026-03-28
    price $174,000 847-char remark

    Show marketing remark (847 chars)

    Welcome to this spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home set on an expansive 1.49 acres in the tranquil landscape of Guin, Alabama (Twin Community). This property's curb appeal & charming covered porch welcomes you, providing the ideal space to enjoy your morning coffee or relax in the evenings. The two living areas are designed for both relaxation and practicality. Featuring updated bathrooms with modern fixtures and finishes, some new flooring and room to make your own personal upgrades! This property also features a storm cellar, adding an extra layer of safety and peace of mind. For outdoor enthusiasts, the open sun deck provides a fantastic space for entertaining or enjoying the serene views of the expansive yard, perfect for gardening, play, or future outdoor projects. Let's go see it! Call for a private showing or virtual tour!

19. 2025-12-02
    price $184,000 847-char remark

    Show marketing remark (847 chars)

    Welcome to this spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home set on an expansive 1.49 acres in the tranquil landscape of Guin, Alabama (Twin Community). This property's curb appeal & charming covered porch welcomes you, providing the ideal space to enjoy your morning coffee or relax in the evenings. The two living areas are designed for both relaxation and practicality. Featuring updated bathrooms with modern fixtures and finishes, some new flooring and room to make your own personal upgrades! This property also features a storm cellar, adding an extra layer of safety and peace of mind. For outdoor enthusiasts, the open sun deck provides a fantastic space for entertaining or enjoying the serene views of the expansive yard, perfect for gardening, play, or future outdoor projects. Let's go see it! Call for a private showing or virtual tour!

20. 2025-09-11
    listed $189,900 Active 847-char remark

    Show marketing remark (847 chars)

    Welcome to this spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home set on an expansive 1.49 acres in the tranquil landscape of Guin, Alabama (Twin Community). This property's curb appeal & charming covered porch welcomes you, providing the ideal space to enjoy your morning coffee or relax in the evenings. The two living areas are designed for both relaxation and practicality. Featuring updated bathrooms with modern fixtures and finishes, some new flooring and room to make your own personal upgrades! This property also features a storm cellar, adding an extra layer of safety and peace of mind. For outdoor enthusiasts, the open sun deck provides a fantastic space for entertaining or enjoying the serene views of the expansive yard, perfect for gardening, play, or future outdoor projects. Let's go see it! Call for a private showing or virtual tour!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,849
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,747
• − Property taxes: −$2,610
• − Insurance: −$870
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,028
• − Management: −$1,028
• − Depreciation: −$5,062
• Taxable loss: −$7,495
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,799
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,480/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion County
• NCES district ID: 0102310
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $32,048
• Composite: 27.69/100
• National rank: #6911
• State rank: #56 of 129 in AL

Livability — Twin

• Score: 45/100
• State rank: #553
• US rank: #26650

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Twin, AL
• Population (ZIP): 3,701

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,759 people
• By 2030: 27,834 · -3.2%
• By 2040: 25,974 · -9.7%
• By 2050: 24,129 · -16.1%
• By 2075: 20,179 · -29.8%
• By 2100: 16,341 · -43.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Black 9% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+81.7) · D 8.8% · R 90.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.6pp toward R · 2008: -56.1pp · 2024: -81.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+81.7 2020: R+77.8 2016: R+76.2 2012: R+61.5 2008: R+56.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 25.62%
• Current HPI: 174.72
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-8.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Relisted — Walker County Area MLS
• 2026-04-14 Contingent — Walker County Area MLS
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $174,000 Walker County Area MLS
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $184,000 Walker County Area MLS
• 2025-09-11 Listed $189,900 Walker County Area MLS