2410 Manor Valley Ln

Sienna, TX 77459

$394,500D-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,447 sqft · Built 2020 · SingleFamily · Active · 219 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,474/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,069
• Tax + insurance: −$1,175
• HOA: −$102
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$519
• Net cashflow: $-1,392/mo
• Annual: $-16,704/yr
• Cap rate: 2.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.12%
• DSCR: 0.33
• 1% rule: 0.63%
• Cash to close: $110,460

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $394k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $243k (38.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $247k (37.3% below list).
• It's been on market 219 days — a 12% lower offer ($347k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $243k (38.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ronald Thornton Middle (math 40% / reading 52%, grade D+, #462 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,529 students, 41% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1941 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 70d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 2.1% vs local median 2.8% in Sienna — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 219 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.