Is 2410 Manor Valley Ln in Sienna, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D- with a 2.5% cap rate and $-1,269/mo modeled cash flow at a $399,998 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 2410 Manor Valley Ln?

The modeled cap rate is 2.5% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,669/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

D- Composite 37.57

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +15.0/15.0
Schools +4.6/10.0
Appreciation +4.2/10.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Cash flow +3.2/30.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0
Livability +2.5/5.0
1% rule +1.7/10.0
DSCR +0.0/10.0

$399,998

2410 Manor Valley Ln · Sienna, TX 77459

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,447 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 173 Days on market

Built 2020 Good condition 6,865 sqft lot 2-car garage $163/sqft · 24% below area Est $528k · 24% under $102/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Beautiful home with soaring ceilings, rich wood flooring, and abundant natural light from a dramatic wall of windows. Open-concept layout with spacious living area flowing into a modern kitchen featuring white cabinetry, quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, gas cooktop, built-in oven/microwave, and large island. Oversized primary suite with spa-like bath including dual vanities, soaking tub, separate glass shower, and walk-in closet. Upstairs game room offers flexible space for media, play, or office. Enjoy the covered patio with outdoor kitchen and a large backyard—perfect for entertaining. Convenient location near shopping, dining, and major roadways.

Key facts

Spa-like bath
Covered patio
Upstairs game room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $400k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $243k (39.3% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $267k (33.3% below list).
Recommended offer: $243k (39.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Ronald Thornton Middle (math 40% / reading 52%, grade D+, #462 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,529 students, 41% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1771 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 71d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 70% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 173 days — a 12% lower offer ($352k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $242,653 (39.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 173 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.67% ✗
Cap rate: 2.49%
Cash-on-cash: -13.59%
DSCR: 0.40
GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $528,176
List price: $399,998
Delta: -24.27%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2326 Calm Channel Ct	0.21mi	4/3.5	2,526 (+3%)	2mo	$412,000	$163	81
8906 Stanley Oak Dr	0.35mi	4/3.0	2,381 (-3%)	1mo	$384,900	$162	78
8723 Azalea Crossing Via	0.43mi	4/3.0	2,496 (+2%)	1mo	$599,000	$240	76
2010 Ironwood Pass Dr	0.43mi	4/3.0	2,529 (+3%)	3mo	$574,900	$227	72
2119 Long Spring Dr	0.35mi	4/3.0	2,522 (+3%)	11mo	$410,989	$163	69
2111 Amelia Way Dr	0.31mi	4/3.5	2,640 (+8%)	2mo	$400,000	$152	69
8703 Red Heron Ln	0.26mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,615 (+7%)	11mo	$459,000	$176	60
8723 Arbor Trail Dr	0.67mi	4/3.0	2,381 (-3%)	6mo	$365,000	$153	59
8726 Windsong Trail Dr	0.63mi	4/3.0	2,517 (+3%)	8mo	$359,900	$143	59
1919 Waters Branch Dr	0.62mi	4/3.0	2,591 (+6%)	10mo	$439,990	$170	53
8715 Fox Trail Dr	0.55mi	4/2.5	2,152 (-12%)	12mo	$349,999	$163	43
1743 Country Air Ln	0.75mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,290 (-6%)	9mo	$385,000	$168	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -31.0%
Equity multiple: -0.16×
Total profit: $-130,224
Equity at exit: $83,891

10-year hold

IRR: -32.3%
Equity multiple: -1.01×
Total profit: $-225,291
Equity at exit: $77,703

Cash invested: $111,999 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 52 active · 14 under contract
Months of supply: 24.0 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $436,490 ($181/sqft)
Median days on market: 80 d
This list price: 13% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +19.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77459

Home prices YoY: -0.8%
Rents YoY: -0.1%
Active inventory: 1771
Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,669 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$2,098
Tax from tax record: −$1,011 /mo · $12,133/yr
Insurance: −$167
HOA: −$102
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$561
Net cashflow: $-1,269

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,275

Max offer price $242,653

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,042	-5% $-1,155	+0% $-1,269	+5% $-1,382	+10% $-1,495
Rent	-10% $-1,479	-5% $-1,374	+0% $-1,269	+5% $-1,163	+10% $-1,058
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,067	-0.5pp $-1,167	base $-1,269	+0.5pp $-1,372	+1.0pp $-1,478

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $100,000
Closing costs: $12,000
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8735 Morris Woods Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1780	$2,000	$1.12	45d	1	0.06mi
2142 Ironwood Pass Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2140	$6,000	$2.80	71d	1	0.32mi
2718 Van Gogh Ln Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	3036	$3,595	$1.18	106d	1	0.43mi
8719 Fox Trail Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2143	$6,000	$2.80	117d	1	0.57mi
1914 Misty Field Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	2051	$2,200	$1.07	10d	1	0.60mi
1618 Rosedale Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2990	$3,400	$1.14	81d	1	0.90mi
1523 Rustling Creek Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	1858	$2,500	$1.35	24d	1	1.03mi
1539 Rustling Creek Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.0	2812	$1,495	$0.53	24d	1	1.03mi
1714 Forest Mist Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	1979	$3,000	$1.52	139d	1	1.33mi
3402 Caloway Ct Missouri City, TX	4.0	4.0	2991	$3,550	$1.19	38d	1	1.48mi

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community: HOA (SPRA) with annual feeAnnual association fee covers clubhouse, common areas, and recreation facilitiesCommunity pool and curbs

Exterior

Parking: Attached 2-car garage
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
Home design: Residential propertyBuilt in 2020Single-family style (two-story elements: first and second floor rooms present)
Construction: Brick and wood siding exteriorComposition roofSlab foundation
Exterior features: Concrete road accessSubdivision lot

Interior

Kitchen: Kitchen with adjacent breakfast nookButler's pantry
Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floorAdditional bedrooms on first and second floors (multiple bedrooms on second floor)
Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms
Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central air conditioning (electric)
Interior features: Butler's pantryDishwasherDisposalMicrowaveTen total rooms
Laundry & utility: Pantry / Butler's pantry (additional kitchen storage)

HOA detail $102/mo · $1,224/yr

Likely covers: gas

Listing history 50 events

2026-09-23

days on market $399,998 Active 173 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $399,998 Active 172 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $399,998 Active 171 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $399,998 Active 170 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $399,998 Active 169 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $399,998 Active 168 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $399,998 Active 167 DOM
2026-09-16

days on market $399,998 Active 166 DOM
2026-09-15

days on market $399,998 Active 165 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $399,998 Active 164 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $399,998 Active 163 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $399,998 Active 162 DOM
2026-09-11

days on market $399,998 Active 161 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $399,998 Active 155 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $399,998 Active 154 DOM
2026-08-31

days on market $399,998 Active 150 DOM
2026-08-30

days on market $399,998 Active 149 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $399,998 Active 148 DOM
2026-08-28

days on market $399,998 Active 147 DOM
2026-08-27

days on market $399,998 Active 146 DOM
2026-08-25

days on market $399,998 Active 144 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $399,998 Active 143 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $399,998 Active 142 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $399,998 Active 141 DOM
2026-08-21

days on market $399,998 Active 140 DOM
2026-08-20

days on market $399,998 Active 139 DOM
2026-08-19

days on market $399,998 Active 138 DOM
2026-08-18

days on market $399,998 Active 137 DOM
2026-08-17

days on market $399,998 Active 136 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $399,998 Active 135 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $399,998 Active 134 DOM
2026-08-14

days on market $399,998 Active 133 DOM
2026-08-13

days on market $399,998 Active 132 DOM
2026-08-12

days on market $399,998 Active 131 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $399,998 Active 130 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $399,998 Active 129 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $399,998 Active 128 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $399,998 Active 127 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $399,998 Active 125 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $399,998 Active 124 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $399,998 Active 123 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $399,998 Active 122 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $399,998 Active 119 DOM
2026-07-30

pricedays on market $399,998 Active 117 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $404,900 Active 116 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $404,900 Active 114 DOM
2026-07-24

price $404,900 Active 112 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $411,111 Active 112 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $411,111 Active 111 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $411,111 Active 110 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax: $12,133 · $1,011/mo
Projected year-2 tax: $12,133 · $1,011/mo
Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $32,032
− Mortgage interest: −$22,406
− Property taxes: −$12,133
− Insurance: −$2,000
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,563
− Management: −$2,563
− HOA: −$1,224
− Depreciation: −$11,636
Taxable loss: −$22,492

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,398
After-tax cash flow: $-9,825/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $12,235–$36,705 screening

This home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a good kitchen, bathrooms, and exterior. The interior walls and siding could benefit from a fresh coat of paint. The home is move-in ready and has a good resale value.

Value-add opportunities

Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value ↑
Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can make the interior look more inviting and modern ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 46/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Alyssa Ferguson El Middle Ronald Thornton Middle D+ TX #462/1,662 Nat'l #4,433/14,009 High Almeta Crawford H S

Schools (NCES district)

District: Fort Bend ISD
NCES district ID: 4819650
Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
Median HH income: $82,360
Composite: 44.61/100
National rank: #2779
State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sienna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

Census place: Sienna, TX
County: Fort Bend County · 1,004,526 people
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 84,221
Household income: $129,151
Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
Current HPI: 212.3573
Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-2.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

2026-06-24 Price Changed $411,111 HARMLS
2026-06-13 Price Changed $412,900 HARMLS
2026-06-02 Price Changed $414,900 HARMLS
2026-05-22 Price Changed $416,000 HARMLS
2026-05-15 Price Changed $418,000 HARMLS
2026-04-03 Listed $420,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+56.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $12,133 · +12.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…