2410 Manor Valley Ln · Sienna, TX 77459

$394,500

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,447 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 219 Days on market

Built 2020 Good condition 6,865 sqft lot 2-car garage $161/sqft · 24% below area Est $520k · 24% under $102/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +2.4/30.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful home with soaring ceilings, rich wood flooring, and abundant natural light from a dramatic wall of windows. Open-concept layout with spacious living area flowing into a modern kitchen featuring white cabinetry, quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, gas cooktop, built-in oven/microwave, and large island. Oversized primary suite with spa-like bath including dual vanities, soaking tub, separate glass shower, and walk-in closet. Upstairs game room offers flexible space for media, play, or office. Enjoy the covered patio with outdoor kitchen and a large backyard—perfect for entertaining. Convenient location near shopping, dining, and major roadways.

Key facts

• Spa-like bath
• Covered patio
• Upstairs game room

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• MODERN KITCHEN
• OVERSIZED PRIMARY SUITE
• SPA-LIKE BATH
• UPSTAIRS GAME ROOM
• COVERED PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $394k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $243k (38.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $247k (37.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $243k (38.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 2.1% vs local median 2.8% in Sienna — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ronald Thornton Middle (math 40% / reading 52%, grade D+, #462 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,529 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1941 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 70d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 219 days — a 12% lower offer ($347k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $242,653 (38.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 219 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.12%
• DSCR: 0.33
• GRM: 13.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $519,579
• List price: $394,500
• Delta: -24.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2326 Calm Channel Ct	0.21mi	4/3.5	2,526 (+3%)	3mo	$412,000	$163	80
8906 Stanley Oak Dr	0.35mi	4/3.0	2,381 (-3%)	3mo	$384,900	$162	77
8723 Azalea Crossing Via	0.43mi	4/3.0	2,496 (+2%)	2mo	$599,000	$240	74
2010 Ironwood Pass Dr	0.43mi	4/3.0	2,529 (+3%)	4mo	$574,900	$227	70
2119 Long Spring Dr	0.35mi	4/3.0	2,522 (+3%)	12mo	$410,989	$163	68
2111 Amelia Way Dr	0.31mi	4/3.5	2,640 (+8%)	3mo	$400,000	$152	68
8803 Oak Springs Dr	0.73mi	4/3.0	2,393 (-2%)	1mo	$383,333	$160	62
8703 Red Heron Ln	0.26mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,615 (+7%)	12mo	$459,000	$176	59
8723 Arbor Trail Dr	0.67mi	4/3.0	2,381 (-3%)	7mo	$365,000	$153	58
8726 Windsong Trail Dr	0.63mi	4/3.0	2,517 (+3%)	9mo	$359,900	$143	58
1919 Waters Branch Dr	0.62mi	4/3.0	2,591 (+6%)	12mo	$439,990	$170	52
1743 Country Air Ln	0.75mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,290 (-6%)	10mo	$385,000	$168	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.24×
• Total profit: $-136,930
• Equity at exit: $82,738

10-year hold

• IRR: -35.3%
• Equity multiple: -1.17×
• Total profit: $-239,313
• Equity at exit: $76,635

Cash invested: $110,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 51 active · 19 under contract
• Months of supply: 18.0 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $429,500 ($180/sqft)
• Median days on market: 111 d
• This list price: 20% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +17.9% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1941
• Price-to-rent: 13.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,474 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,069
• Tax from tax record: −$1,011 /mo · $12,133/yr
• Insurance: −$164
• HOA: −$102
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$519
• Net cashflow: $-1,392

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,236

Max offer price $242,653

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,169	-5% $-1,280	+0% $-1,392	+5% $-1,504	+10% $-1,615
Rent	-10% $-1,587	-5% $-1,490	+0% $-1,392	+5% $-1,294	+10% $-1,197
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,193	-0.5pp $-1,292	base $-1,392	+0.5pp $-1,494	+1.0pp $-1,598

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $98,625
• Closing costs: $11,835
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8735 Morris Woods Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1780	$2,000	$1.12	90d	1	0.06mi
8735 Morris Woods Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1780	$2,000	$1.12	10d	1	0.06mi
2507 Manor Valley Ct Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	1870	$1,900	$1.02	10d	1	0.09mi
2142 Ironwood Pass Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2140	$6,000	$2.80	116d	1	0.32mi
2718 Van Gogh Ln Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	3036	$3,595	$1.18	151d	1	0.43mi
8719 Fox Trail Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2143	$6,000	$2.80	163d	1	0.57mi
1914 Misty Field Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	2051	$2,200	$1.07	10d	1	0.60mi
1618 Rosedale Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2990	$3,400	$1.14	127d	1	0.90mi
1523 Rustling Creek Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	1858	$2,500	$1.35	69d	1	1.03mi
1539 Rustling Creek Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.0	2812	$1,495	$0.53	10d	1	1.03mi
1539 Rustling Creek Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.0	2812	$1,495	$0.53	69d	1	1.03mi
1714 Forest Mist Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	1979	$3,000	$1.52	184d	1	1.33mi
3402 Caloway Ct Missouri City, TX	4.0	4.0	2991	$3,550	$1.19	10d	1	1.48mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA (SPRA) with annual feeAnnual association fee covers clubhouse, common areas, and recreation facilitiesCommunity pool and curbs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyBuilt in 2020Single-family style (two-story elements: first and second floor rooms present)
• Construction: Brick and wood siding exteriorComposition roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Concrete road accessSubdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with adjacent breakfast nookButler's pantry
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floorAdditional bedrooms on first and second floors (multiple bedrooms on second floor)
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Butler's pantryDishwasherDisposalMicrowaveTen total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Pantry / Butler's pantry (additional kitchen storage)

HOA detail $102/mo · $1,224/yr

• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $394,500 Active 219 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $394,500 Active 218 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $394,500 Active 217 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $394,500 Active 216 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $394,500 Active 215 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $394,500 Active 213 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $394,500 Active 212 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $394,500 Active 211 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $394,500 Active 210 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $394,500 Active 209 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $394,500 Active 208 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $394,500 Active 207 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $394,500 Active 206 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $394,500 Active 205 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $394,500 Active 204 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $394,500 Active 203 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $394,500 Active 202 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $394,500 Active 201 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $394,500 Active 200 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $394,500 Active 199 DOM
21. 2026-10-19
    price $394,500 Active 198 DOM
22. 2026-10-18
    days on market $399,998 Active 198 DOM
23. 2026-10-17
    days on market $399,998 Active 197 DOM
24. 2026-10-16
    days on market $399,998 Active 196 DOM
25. 2026-10-15
    days on market $399,998 Active 195 DOM
26. 2026-10-14
    days on market $399,998 Active 194 DOM
27. 2026-10-13
    days on market $399,998 Active 193 DOM
28. 2026-10-12
    days on market $399,998 Active 192 DOM
29. 2026-10-11
    days on market $399,998 Active 191 DOM
30. 2026-10-10
    days on market $399,998 Active 190 DOM
31. 2026-10-09
    days on market $399,998 Active 189 DOM
32. 2026-10-08
    days on market $399,998 Active 188 DOM
33. 2026-10-07
    days on market $399,998 Active 187 DOM
34. 2026-10-06
    days on market $399,998 Active 186 DOM
35. 2026-10-05
    days on market $399,998 Active 185 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $399,998 Active 184 DOM
37. 2026-10-04
    days on market $399,998 Active 183 DOM
38. 2026-10-02
    days on market $399,998 Active 182 DOM
39. 2026-10-01
    days on market $399,998 Active 181 DOM
40. 2026-09-30
    days on market $399,998 Active 180 DOM
41. 2026-09-29
    days on market $399,998 Active 179 DOM
42. 2026-09-28
    days on market $399,998 Active 178 DOM
43. 2026-09-27
    days on market $399,998 Active 177 DOM
44. 2026-09-26
    days on market $399,998 Active 176 DOM
45. 2026-09-25
    days on market $399,998 Active 175 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $399,998 Active 174 DOM
47. 2026-09-23
    days on market $399,998 Active 173 DOM
48. 2026-09-22
    days on market $399,998 Active 172 DOM
49. 2026-09-21
    days on market $399,998 Active 171 DOM
50. 2026-09-20
    days on market $399,998 Active 170 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $12,133 · $1,011/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $12,133 · $1,011/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,685
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,098
• − Property taxes: −$12,133
• − Insurance: −$1,972
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,375
• − Management: −$2,375
• − HOA: −$1,224
• − Depreciation: −$11,476
• Taxable loss: −$23,968
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,752
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,951/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $12,235–$36,705 screening

This home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a good kitchen, bathrooms, and exterior. The interior walls and siding could benefit from a fresh coat of paint. The home is move-in ready and has a good resale value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value ↑
• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can make the interior look more inviting and modern ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 46/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Alyssa Ferguson El Middle Ronald Thornton Middle D+ TX #462/1,662 Nat'l #4,433/14,009 High Almeta Crawford H S

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sienna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sienna, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 1,004,526 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

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Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

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Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA (SPRA) with annual feeAnnual association fee covers clubhouse, common areas, and recreation facilitiesCommunity pool and curbs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyBuilt in 2020Single-family style (two-story elements: first and second floor rooms present)
• Construction: Brick and wood siding exteriorComposition roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Concrete road accessSubdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with adjacent breakfast nookButler's pantry
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floorAdditional bedrooms on first and second floors (multiple bedrooms on second floor)
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Butler's pantryDishwasherDisposalMicrowaveTen total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Pantry / Butler's pantry (additional kitchen storage)

Price history

-2.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-24 Price Changed $411,111 HARMLS
• 2026-06-13 Price Changed $412,900 HARMLS
• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $414,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $416,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $418,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-03 Listed $420,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+56.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $12,133 · +12.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.