2410 Manor Valley Ln · Sienna, TX 77459

$412,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,447 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 76 Days on market

Built 2020 Good condition 6,865 sqft lot $169/sqft · 27% below area Est $566k · 27% under $102/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful home with soaring ceilings, rich wood flooring, and abundant natural light from a dramatic wall of windows. Open-concept layout with spacious living area flowing into a modern kitchen featuring white cabinetry, quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, gas cooktop, built-in oven/microwave, and large island. Oversized primary suite with spa-like bath including dual vanities, soaking tub, separate glass shower, and walk-in closet. Upstairs game room offers flexible space for media, play, or office. Enjoy the covered patio with outdoor kitchen and a large backyard—perfect for entertaining. Convenient location near shopping, dining, and major roadways.

Key facts

• Spa-like bath
• Covered patio
• Upstairs game room

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• MODERN KITCHEN
• OVERSIZED PRIMARY SUITE
• SPA-LIKE BATH
• UPSTAIRS GAME ROOM
• COVERED PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $413k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $399 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $413k).
• Recommended offer: $388k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 3.3% in Sienna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1215 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,872/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($129k/yr) (locally 1004% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($388k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $388,126 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.14%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $566,189
• List price: $412,900
• Delta: -27.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8715 Morris Woods Dr	0.11mi	4/3.0	2,251 (-8%)	11mo	$425,000	$189	72
2119 Long Spring Dr	0.35mi	4/3.0	2,522 (+3%)	8mo	$410,989	$163	72
8703 Red Heron Ln	0.26mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,615 (+7%)	8mo	$459,000	$176	63
8723 Arbor Trail Dr	0.67mi	4/3.0	2,381 (-3%)	3mo	$365,000	$153	62
8726 Windsong Trail Dr	0.63mi	4/3.0	2,517 (+3%)	5mo	$359,900	$143	62
1919 Waters Branch Dr	0.62mi	4/3.0	2,591 (+6%)	7mo	$439,990	$170	56
9002 Stanley Oak Dr	0.36mi	4/3.0	2,714 (+11%)	12mo	$489,900	$181	55
8715 Crossing Oak Ln	0.31mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,136 (-13%)	9mo	$405,000	$190	52
8715 Fox Trail Dr	0.55mi	4/2.5	2,152 (-12%)	9mo	$349,999	$163	45
8711 Crossing Oak Ln	0.33mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,086 (-15%)	13mo	$359,990	$173	43
1743 Country Air Ln	0.75mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,290 (-6%)	6mo	$385,000	$168	43
1802 Misty Field Dr	0.67mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,103 (-14%)	12mo	$460,000	$219	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-31,812
• Equity at exit: $86,597

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-27,036
• Equity at exit: $80,210

Cash invested: $115,612 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1215
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,872 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,165
• Tax from tax record: −$1,011 /mo · $12,133/yr
• Insurance: −$172
• HOA: −$102
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,023
• Net cashflow: $399

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,368

Max offer price $412,900

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $633	-5% $516	+0% $399	+5% $282	+10% $165
Rent	-10% $14	-5% $206	+0% $399	+5% $591	+10% $784
Rate	-1.0pp $607	-0.5pp $504	base $399	+0.5pp $292	+1.0pp $183

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $103,225
• Closing costs: $12,387
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2142 Ironwood Pass Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2140	$6,000	$2.80	2d	1	0.32mi
2718 Van Gogh Ln Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	3036	$3,595	$1.18	11d	1	0.43mi
8719 Fox Trail Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2143	$6,000	$2.80	22d	1	0.57mi
1714 Forest Mist Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	1979	$3,000	$1.52	44d	1	1.33mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $102 · $1,224/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $412,900 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $412,900 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $412,900 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $412,900 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $412,900 Active 71 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $414,900 Active 67 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $414,900 Active 65 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $414,900 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $414,900 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $414,900 Active 60 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $416,000 Active 59 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $416,000 Active 58 DOM
13. 2026-05-15
    price $418,000 684-char remark

    Show marketing remark (684 chars)

    Beautiful home with soaring ceilings, rich wood flooring, and abundant natural light from a dramatic wall of windows. Open-concept layout with spacious living area flowing into a modern kitchen featuring white cabinetry, quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, gas cooktop, built-in oven/microwave, and large island. Oversized primary suite with spa-like bath including dual vanities, soaking tub, separate glass shower, and walk-in closet. Upstairs game room offers flexible space for media, play, or office. Enjoy the covered patio with outdoor kitchen and a large backyard—perfect for entertaining. Convenient location near shopping, dining, and major roadways.

14. 2026-04-03
    listed $420,000 Active 684-char remark

    Show marketing remark (684 chars)

    Beautiful home with soaring ceilings, rich wood flooring, and abundant natural light from a dramatic wall of windows. Open-concept layout with spacious living area flowing into a modern kitchen featuring white cabinetry, quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, gas cooktop, built-in oven/microwave, and large island. Oversized primary suite with spa-like bath including dual vanities, soaking tub, separate glass shower, and walk-in closet. Upstairs game room offers flexible space for media, play, or office. Enjoy the covered patio with outdoor kitchen and a large backyard—perfect for entertaining. Convenient location near shopping, dining, and major roadways.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $12,133 · $1,011/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $12,133 · $1,011/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $58,470
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,129
• − Property taxes: −$12,133
• − Insurance: −$2,064
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,678
• − Management: −$4,678
• − HOA: −$1,224
• − Depreciation: −$12,012
• Taxable loss: −$1,447
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$347
• After-tax cash flow: $5,134/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a good kitchen, bathrooms, and exterior. The interior walls and siding could benefit from a fresh coat of paint. The home is move-in ready and has a good resale value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value
• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can make the interior look more inviting and modern

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value ↑
• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can make the interior look more inviting and modern ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sienna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sienna, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $418,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-03 Listed $420,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+56.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $12,133 · +12.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.