2018 Dawson's Mill Ln

Prattville, AL 36067

$268,200D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,575 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Pending · 39 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,263/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,406
• Tax + insurance: −$447
• HOA: −$10
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$475
• Net cashflow: $-75/mo
• Annual: $-906/yr
• Cap rate: 5.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.21%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $75,096

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $268k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-75 ($-906/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $257k (4.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (15.6% below list).
• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($260k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $226k (15.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#11 in AL, #3,273 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: amenities D, commute F.
• Autauga County (rural): math 23% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #34 of 129 in AL (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Prattville Primary School (714 students, 58% FRL); Prattville Junior High School (math 23% / reading 57%, grade F, #59 of 257 statewide, top 23%, 1,031 students, 56% FRL); Prattville High School (math 32% / reading 41%, grade F, #42 of 305 statewide, top 13%, 1,929 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 39% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.8%/yr); 133 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 221 units permitted in Autauga County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Autauga County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.2% in Prattville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.