2018 Dawson's Mill Ln · Prattville, AL 36067

$268,200

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,575 sqft · SingleFamily · 39 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 0.27 ac lot Est $268k · at est. $10/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.4/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

.Presenting the Windsor floor plan. Step into this oasis and let the modern touches win you over. This newly built home has an open floor plan right off the formal foyer, that gives way to three bedrooms and two bathrooms, and a poured concrete patio that is all low maintenance so you can enjoy your time at home. Whether you spend your time alone, with family, or hosting larger gatherings, this bright eat in kitchen with a breakfast bar has everything you could want or need. The living room is comfortable sophistication with the woodburning fireplace clad in a wraparound mantle. The owner’s suite is designed to not only be beautiful and drenched in natural light that pours in from two

Key facts

• 0.27 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $119

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Driveway
• Security: Fire alarm
• Utilities: Electricity available; High-speed internet available; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story home; New construction (under construction); Built by Goodwyn Building Co. Inc. — Windsor model; Home warranty included
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding exterior; Foam insulation; Slab foundation; Under construction (builder provided year source)
• Exterior features: Patio; City lot in a subdivision; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Electric range; Smooth cooktop; Self-cleaning oven; Microwave; Garbage disposal; Plumbed for ice maker
• Bedrooms: Multiple bedrooms on the first level
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Double vanity; Garden/Roman tub; Separate shower
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Tray ceilings; High ceilings; Double vanity; Garden/Roman tub; Separate shower; Linen closet; Pull-down attic stairs; Walk-in closets; Window treatments; Blinds; Double-pane windows; Insulated doors; Breakfast bar; One fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $268k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-75 ($-906/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $257k (4.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (15.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $226k (15.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.2% in Prattville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#11 in AL, #3,273 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: amenities D, commute F.
• Autauga County (rural): math 23% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #34 of 129 in AL (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Prattville Primary School (714 students, 58% FRL); Prattville Junior High School (math 23% / reading 57%, grade F, #59 of 257 statewide, top 23%, 1,031 students, 56% FRL); Prattville High School (math 32% / reading 41%, grade F, #42 of 305 statewide, top 13%, 1,929 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 39% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.8%/yr); 133 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 221 units permitted in Autauga County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Autauga County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($260k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $226,328 (15.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.21%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $267,750
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2018 Dawson's Mill Ln	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,575 (0%)	1mo	$268,200	$170	99
2022 Dawson's Mill Ln	0.02mi	4/2.0	1,671 (+6%)	2mo	$269,625	$161	88
2014 Dawson's Mill Ln	0.02mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,490 (-5%)	1mo	$252,600	$170	84
2024 Dawson's Mill Ln	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,490 (-5%)	1mo	$254,975	$171	83
133 Moses Rd	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,475 (-6%)	0mo	$241,300	$164	83
2028 Dawson's Mill Ln	0.05mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,490 (-5%)	2mo	$255,850	$172	82
1011 Dawson's Mill Blvd	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,671 (+6%)	1mo	$260,000	$156	78
2012 Dawson's Mill Ln	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-11%)	1mo	$256,675	$183	75
2016 Dawson's Mill Ln	0.01mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,395 (-11%)	1mo	$240,500	$172	74
2020 Dawson's Mill Ln	0.01mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,395 (-11%)	2mo	$235,900	$169	74
127 Dawson's Mill Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-11%)	1mo	$255,000	$182	70
1267 Cross Creek Rd	0.41mi	4/2.0	1,809 (+15%)	1mo	$274,900	$152	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-41,720
• Equity at exit: $39,989

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-14,089
• Equity at exit: $23,189

Cash invested: $75,096 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36067

• Home prices YoY: -12.4%
• Rents YoY: 5.8%
• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,263 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,406
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$335 /mo · $4,023/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$475
• Net cashflow: $-75

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,359

Max offer price $257,278

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $110	-5% $17	+0% $-75	+5% $-168	+10% $-261
Rent	-10% $-254	-5% $-165	+0% $-75	+5% $14	+10% $103
Rate	-1.0pp $60	-0.5pp $-7	base $-75	+0.5pp $-145	+1.0pp $-216

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,050
• Closing costs: $8,046
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2026 Dawsons Mill Ln Prattville, AL	3.0	2.0	1395	$1,850	$1.33	45d	1	0.05mi
732 Mimosa Rd Prattville, AL	4.0	2.0	1795	$1,731	$0.96	15d	1	1.36mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-02
   historical Contingent
3. 2026-04-01
   listed $268,200 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,159
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,023
• − Property taxes: −$4,023
• − Insurance: −$1,341
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,173
• − Management: −$2,173
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$7,802
• Taxable loss: −$5,496
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,319
• After-tax cash flow: $413/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This newly built home in the Windsor floor plan offers a good condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It has potential for further value increases through minor updates and maintenance.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value.
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Upgrading appliances can attract more buyers.
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Upgrading fixtures can attract more buyers and renters.
• Rental HVAC system maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system can attract renters and reduce utility costs.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Upgrading appliances can attract more buyers. ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Upgrading fixtures can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Rental HVAC system maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system can attract renters and reduce utility costs. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Autauga County
• NCES district ID: 0100240
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -31.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $52,974
• Composite: 31.77/100
• National rank: #5892
• State rank: #34 of 129 in AL

Livability — Prattville

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #11
• US rank: #3273

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Prattville, AL
• County: Autauga County · 50,925 people
• City population: 50,925
• Metro: Montgomery, AL
• Population (ZIP): 28,293
• Household income: $65,593
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 389.0

Population outlook (Autauga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,958 people
• By 2030: 55,810 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 54,892 · -1.9%
• By 2050: 53,062 · -5.2%
• By 2075: 49,425 · -11.7%
• By 2100: 45,110 · -19.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 20% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Autauga

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.3) · D 26.4% · R 72.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.6pp toward D · 2008: -47.8pp · 2024: -46.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.3 2020: R+44.4 2016: R+49.5 2012: R+46.0 2008: R+47.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -29.98%
• Current HPI: 211.1676
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.78%
• Metro: Montgomery, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — MAAR
• 2026-04-02 Contingent — MAAR
• 2026-04-01 Listed $268,200 MAAR