3106 Fernwood Ln

New Castle Northwest, PA 16105

$279,900F

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,143 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Active · 28 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,282/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax + insurance: −$373
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$479
• Net cashflow: $-38/mo
• Annual: $-456/yr
• Cap rate: 6.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.58%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $78,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-38 ($-456/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $273k (2.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (18.5% below list).
• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $228k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#111 in PA, #870 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F.
• Neshannock Township SD (rural): math 38% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #133 of 539 in PA (top 25%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 105 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 51 units permitted in Lawrence County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lawrence County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 29y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $62k; list at $280k implies a 348% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.9% in New Castle Northwest — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.