3106 Fernwood Ln · New Castle Northwest, PA 16105

$279,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,143 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1950 0.71 ac lot Est $224k · 25% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Neshannock Twp and school district. Hardwood floors in LR, DR, and 1st flr bedrooms. 3rd bedroom on 2nd flr. Deck and covered front porch. Integral garage. 1417 +/- sq ft.

Key facts

• Renovated kitchen
• Four seasons room
• Crown molding

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• RENOVATED KITCHEN
• STAINLESS-STEEL APPLIANCES
• CERAMIC TILE SHOWER
• CROWN MOLDING
• FOUR SEASONS ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Public transportation access

Exterior

• Parking: Built-in attached garage with space for 1 vehicle
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank
• Home design: Resale property
• Construction: Brick construction; Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: 0.71-acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stove; Some gas appliances
• Flooring: Hardwood floors; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Window treatments throughout; Unfinished walk-out basement; Two wood-burning fireplaces
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-38 ($-456/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $273k (2.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (18.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $228k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.9% in New Castle Northwest — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#111 in PA, #870 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F.
• Neshannock Township SD (rural): math 38% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #133 of 539 in PA (top 25%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 105 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 51 units permitted in Lawrence County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lawrence County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 29y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $62k; list at $280k implies a 348% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $228,200 (18.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.58%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $224,028
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
222 Sunset Dr	0.17mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,257 (+10%)	4mo	$200,000	$159	67
3022 Spring Garden Ave	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+9%)	2mo	$245,000	$196	64
108 E Oakwood Way	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,044 (-9%)	11mo	$245,000	$235	42
65 Shenango Rd	0.63mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,064 (-7%)	22mo	$179,900	$169	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-47,798
• Equity at exit: $41,734

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-44,831
• Equity at exit: $24,201

Cash invested: $78,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16105

• Home prices YoY: -26.5%
• Active inventory: 105
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,282 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$256 /mo · $3,076/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$479
• Net cashflow: $-38

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,330

Max offer price $273,190

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $120	-5% $41	+0% $-38	+5% $-117	+10% $-196
Rent	-10% $-218	-5% $-128	+0% $-38	+5% $52	+10% $142
Rate	-1.0pp $103	-0.5pp $33	base $-38	+0.5pp $-111	+1.0pp $-184

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,975
• Closing costs: $8,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3506 Meadowview Blvd New Castle, PA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1200	$2,282	$1.90	14d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $279,900 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,900 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,900 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,900 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,900 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $279,900 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $279,900 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,900 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,900 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $279,900 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $279,900 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,900 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,900 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,900 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,900 Active 9 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $279,900 Active 8 DOM
17. 2026-05-22
    listed $279,900 Active
18. 2012-05-02
    soldstatus $62,500 171-char remark

    Show marketing remark (171 chars)

    Neshannock Twp and school district. Hardwood floors in LR, DR, and 1st flr bedrooms. 3rd bedroom on 2nd flr. Deck and covered front porch. Integral garage. 1417 +/- sq ft.

19. 2012-05-02
    price $73,500 171-char remark

    Show marketing remark (171 chars)

    Neshannock Twp and school district. Hardwood floors in LR, DR, and 1st flr bedrooms. 3rd bedroom on 2nd flr. Deck and covered front porch. Integral garage. 1417 +/- sq ft.

20. 2012-03-02
    listed $62,500 171-char remark

    Show marketing remark (171 chars)

    Neshannock Twp and school district. Hardwood floors in LR, DR, and 1st flr bedrooms. 3rd bedroom on 2nd flr. Deck and covered front porch. Integral garage. 1417 +/- sq ft.

21. 1997-09-18
    soldstatus $97,000 70-char remark

    Show marketing remark (70 chars)

    SOME H/W FLOORING EAT-IN KIT. @ MUCH CUPBOARDS PUBLIC SEWERS AT STREET

22. 1997-09-18
    soldstatus $97,000

    Show marketing remark (70 chars)

    SOME H/W FLOORING EAT-IN KIT. @ MUCH CUPBOARDS PUBLIC SEWERS AT STREET

23. 1997-06-14
    listed $110,000 70-char remark

    Show marketing remark (70 chars)

    SOME H/W FLOORING EAT-IN KIT. @ MUCH CUPBOARDS PUBLIC SEWERS AT STREET

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,076 · $256/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,749 · $312/mo
• Expected delta: +$673/yr (+$56/mo · 21.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,384
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,679
• − Property taxes: −$3,076
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,191
• − Management: −$2,191
• − Depreciation: −$8,143
• Taxable loss: −$5,294
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,271
• After-tax cash flow: $815/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Neshannock Township SD
• NCES district ID: 4216440
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $58,658
• Composite: 45.98/100
• National rank: #2536
• State rank: #133 of 539 in PA

Livability — New Castle Northwest

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #870

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 15,195

Population outlook (Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 81,781 people
• By 2030: 77,978 · -4.7%
• By 2040: 69,522 · -15.0%
• By 2050: 61,344 · -25.0%
• By 2075: 45,027 · -44.9%
• By 2100: 31,305 · -61.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Serbian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lawrence

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.8) · D 32.8% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.7pp toward R · 2008: -5.1pp · 2024: -33.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.8 2020: R+29.6 2016: R+28.1 2012: R+9.0 2008: R+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.26%
• Current HPI: 173.0332
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+154.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $279,900 West Penn MLS
• 2012-05-02 Price Changed $73,500 West Penn MLS
• 2012-05-02 Sold (MLS) $62,500 West Penn MLS
• 2012-03-02 Listed $62,500 West Penn MLS
• 1997-09-18 Sold (Public Records) $97,000 Public Records
• 1997-09-18 Sold (MLS) $97,000 West Penn MLS
• 1997-06-14 Listed $110,000 West Penn MLS

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,076 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.