3421 Badley Ave

Alton, IL 62002

$157,900F

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,098 sqft · Built 1940 · SingleFamily · Active · 139 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,064/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$828
• Tax + insurance: −$318
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$224
• Net cashflow: $-305/mo
• Annual: $-3,661/yr
• Cap rate: 3.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.28%
• DSCR: 0.63
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $44,212

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $158k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-305 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $104k (34.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $106k (32.6% below list).
• It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($139k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $104k (34.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#701 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities D-.
• Alton CUSD 11 (suburban): math 12% / reading 13% proficiency, ranked #544 of 620 in IL (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: East Elementary School (math 11% / reading 11%, grade F, #1,460 of 2,056 statewide, top 72%, 424 students, 0% FRL); Alton Middle School (math 10% / reading 11%, grade F, #580 of 665 statewide, top 88%, 1,241 students, 0% FRL); Alton High School (math 20% / reading 25%, grade F, #317 of 693 statewide, top 46%, 1,990 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 60% district-wide (60 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 169 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 336 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Madison County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $37k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $158k implies a 66% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 6.4% in Alton — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?