11673 Village Place Dr #253

Houston, TX 77077

$140,000D-

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,651 sqft · Built 1978 · Townhouse · Pending · 260 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,502/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax + insurance: −$388
• HOA: −$415
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $-351/mo
• Annual: $-4,215/yr
• Cap rate: 3.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.75%
• DSCR: 0.52
• 1% rule: 1.07%
• Cash to close: $39,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $140k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-351 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $79k (43.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• It's been on market 260 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $79k (43.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Askew El (math 38% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,437 of 4,322 statewide, top 34%, 896 students, 74% FRL); Revere Middle (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,583 of 1,662 statewide, top 96%, 1,112 students, 93% FRL); Westside H S (math 33% / reading 63%, grade D, #571 of 1,632 statewide, top 36%, 2,882 students, 66% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; HOA is 28% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 362 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 260 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?