1991 Cr 3790

Joaquin, TX 75954

$79,500D+

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 540 sqft · Built 2021 · SingleFamily · Pending · 126 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $728/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$417
• Tax + insurance: −$132
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$153
• Net cashflow: $26/mo
• Annual: $308/yr
• Cap rate: 6.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.38%
• DSCR: 1.06
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $22,260

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $26 ($308/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $73k (8.4% below list).
• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $550 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,199 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Joaquin ISD (rural): math 52% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #202 of 826 in TX (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Joaquin El (math 47% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 344 students, 68% FRL); Joaquin J H School (math 57% / reading 42%, grade C, #356 of 1,662 statewide, top 23%, 145 students, 63% FRL); Joaquin H S (math 54% / reading 74%, grade B-, #199 of 1,632 statewide, top 14%, 222 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Shelby County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.