44 Box St Unit 2R

New York, NY 11222

$795,000D-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 596 sqft · Built 2017 · Condo · Active · 130 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,177/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,169
• Tax + insurance: −$1,325
• HOA: −$230
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,087
• Net cashflow: $-1,634/mo
• Annual: $-19,610/yr
• Cap rate: 3.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.81%
• DSCR: 0.61
• 1% rule: 0.65%
• Cash to close: $222,600

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $795k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-20k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $559k (29.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $518k (34.9% below list).
• It's been on market 130 days — a 12% lower offer ($700k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $518k (34.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $85k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $80k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.0%/yr); 105 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,063 units permitted in Kings County in 2024 (9,789 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kings County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$137k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.8% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,177/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($126k/yr) (locally 3139% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 130 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?