Guadalupe Plan

Taylor, TX 76574

$258,990F

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,880 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 318 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,328/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,507
• Tax + insurance: −$479
• HOA: −$54
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$489
• Net cashflow: $-201/mo
• Annual: $-2,417/yr
• Cap rate: 5.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.00%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $80,483

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $259k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-201 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $258k (0.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $233k (10.1% below list).
• It's been on market 318 days — a 12% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $228k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#312 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Taylor ISD (town): math 20% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #726 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Naomi Pasemann El (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,836 of 4,322 statewide, top 91%, 649 students, 68% FRL); Taylor Middle (math 16% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,407 of 1,662 statewide, top 86%, 651 students, 69% FRL); Taylor H S (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,366 of 1,632 statewide, top 84%, 907 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 403 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 52d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 68% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.2% in Taylor — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 318 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.