Guadalupe Plan · Taylor, TX 76574

$258,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,880 sqft · SingleFamily · 318 Days on market

Good condition $54/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spring - Guadalupe

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 317 days

🏗️ New construction. The $258,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $287,438.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $259k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-201 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $258k (0.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $233k (10.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $228k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.2% in Taylor — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#312 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Taylor ISD (town): math 20% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #726 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Naomi Pasemann El (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,836 of 4,322 statewide, top 91%, 649 students, 68% FRL); Taylor Middle (math 16% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,407 of 1,662 statewide, top 86%, 651 students, 69% FRL); Taylor H S (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,366 of 1,632 statewide, top 84%, 907 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 403 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 52d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 68% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 318 days — a 12% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $227,911 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 318 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.00%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $287,438
• List price: $258,990
• Delta: -9.90%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
112 Hartson Dr	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,880 (0%)	0mo	$259,990	$138	97
116 Greinert Dr	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,880 (0%)	4mo	$274,990	$146	94
311 Greinert Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,850 (-2%)	0mo	$349,990	$189	90
136 Greinert Dr	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,640 (-13%)	0mo	$244,990	$149	77
129 Greinert Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,610 (-14%)	3mo	$324,990	$202	70
1644 T H Johnson Dr	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,786 (-5%)	4mo	$300,000	$168	55
125 Janice Rd	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,743 (-7%)	2mo	$325,000	$186	54
105 Onna St	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,743 (-7%)	4mo	$319,500	$183	50
1304 Sagewood Dr	0.48mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,140 (+14%)	2mo	$515,000	$241	48
1020 Estes Park	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,129 (+13%)	4mo	$344,900	$162	46
1636 T H Johnson Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	2,141 (+14%)	4mo	$329,000	$154	45
1915 T H Johnson Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,659 (-12%)	1mo	$325,000	$196	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-65,206
• Equity at exit: $42,858

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.19×
• Total profit: $-95,895
• Equity at exit: $24,852

Cash invested: $80,483 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 37 active · 22 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.7 mo (13%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $299,990 ($161/sqft)
• Median days on market: 73 d
• This list price: 16% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -5.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76574

• Home prices YoY: -32.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 403
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,328 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,507
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$359 /mo · $4,312/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$489
• Net cashflow: $-201

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,583

Max offer price $258,295

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-3	-5% $-102	+0% $-201	+5% $-301	+10% $-400
Rent	-10% $-385	-5% $-293	+0% $-201	+5% $-109	+10% $-18
Rate	-1.0pp $-57	-0.5pp $-128	base $-201	+0.5pp $-276	+1.0pp $-352

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,860
• Closing costs: $8,623
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
116 Hartson Dr Taylor, TX	3.0	2.5	1883	$2,100	$1.12	9d	1	0.03mi
120 Hartson Dr Taylor, TX	3.0	2.5	1806	$1,925	$1.07	53d	1	0.03mi
108 Hartson Dr Taylor, TX	3.0	2.5	1806	$1,850	$1.02	29d	1	0.03mi
140 Hartson Dr Taylor, TX	3.0	3.0	1780	$2,100	$1.18	93d	1	0.05mi
211 Tribute Blvd Unit Front Main Unit Taylor, TX	3.0	3.0	1900	$4,250	$2.24	47d	1	0.05mi
124 Marcel Ct Taylor, TX	3.0	2.0	1557	$1,795	$1.15	93d	1	0.54mi
200 Janice Taylor, TX	4.0	2.0	1743	$2,200	$1.26	9d	1	0.57mi
1717 T H Johnson Dr Taylor, TX	4.0	2.5	2450	$2,450	$1.00	9d	1	0.62mi
180 Pivot Dr Taylor, TX	4.0	3.0	1906	$1,950	$1.02	73d	1	0.66mi
120 Onna St Taylor, TX	3.0	2.0	1734	$2,150	$1.24	52d	1	0.68mi
109 Gunther Way Taylor, TX	3.0	2.0	1564	$2,100	$1.34	9d	1	0.72mi
3007 Zachary Ln Taylor, TX	3.0	2.0	1630	$1,825	$1.12	32d	1	0.74mi
3004 Zachary Ln Taylor, TX	4.0	2.0	2336	$2,150	$0.92	9d	1	0.74mi
108 Pivot Dr Taylor, TX	3.0	2.0	1605	$1,800	$1.12	71d	1	0.78mi
1006 Cottonbowl Dr Taylor, TX	4.0	2.0	1615	$2,300	$1.42	93d	1	0.83mi
2109 Brewers Pl Taylor, TX	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,950	$1.50	93d	1	0.99mi
2005 Whistling Way Taylor, TX	4.0	2.5	2209	$2,050	$0.93	53d	1	1.05mi
2005 Whistling Way Taylor, TX	4.0	2.5	2209	$1,999	$0.90	47d	1	1.05mi
1910 Muscovy Cv Taylor, TX	3.0	2.0	1626	$2,000	$1.23	22d	1	1.06mi
1800 Grace St Taylor, TX	4.0	3.5	2503	$2,050	$0.82	60d	1	1.42mi
1800 Grace St Taylor, TX	3.0	2.0	2503	$2,050	$0.82	61d	1	1.42mi
1707 Lexington St Taylor, TX	3.0	2.0	2140	$2,300	$1.07	42d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $258,990 Active 318 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $258,990 Active 316 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $258,990 Active 315 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $258,990 Active 314 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $258,990 Active 313 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $258,990 Active 310 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $258,990 Active 308 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $258,990 Active 307 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $258,990 Active 305 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $258,990 Active 303 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $258,990 Active 302 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $258,990 Active 301 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $258,990 Active 300 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $258,990 Active 299 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $258,990 Active 297 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $258,990 Active 296 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $258,990 Active 295 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $258,990 Active 294 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $258,990 Active 293 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $258,990 Active 292 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $258,990 Active 291 DOM
22. 2026-07-12
    days on market $258,990 Active 290 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $258,990 Active 289 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $258,990 Active 288 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $258,990 Active 286 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $258,990 Active 285 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $258,990 Active 284 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $258,990 Active 282 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $258,990 Active 281 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    remarks 699-char remark
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $258,990 Active 280 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $258,990 Active 279 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $258,990 Active 278 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $258,990 Active 277 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $258,990 Active 276 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $258,990 Active 275 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $258,990 Active 273 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $258,990 Active 271 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $258,990 Active 270 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $258,990 Active 267 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $258,990 Active 266 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $258,990 Active 265 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $258,990 Active 264 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $258,990 Active 262 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $258,990 Active 258 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $258,990 Active 257 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $258,990 Active 256 DOM
48. 2026-06-05
    days on market $258,990 Active 253 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $258,990 Active 252 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $258,990 Active 251 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,934
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,101
• − Property taxes: −$4,312
• − Insurance: −$1,437
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,235
• − Management: −$2,235
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$8,362
• Taxable loss: −$7,395
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,775
• After-tax cash flow: $-642/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,400–$28,200 screening

The home is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. It is move-in ready and has the potential for significant value increases through cosmetic upgrades and improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both New flooring in high-traffic areas — Fresh flooring can improve the home's appearance and reduce wear and tear. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A new HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, attracting more buyers and tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading the bathrooms with modern fixtures — Modern bathrooms can attract more buyers and tenants and improve the home's overall appeal. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 20/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Naomi Pasemann El F TX #3,836/4,322 Nat'l #35,191/41,679 Middle Taylor Middle F TX #1,407/1,662 Nat'l #11,564/14,009 High Taylor H S F TX #1,366/1,632 Nat'l #13,673/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Taylor ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842280
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $45,330
• Composite: 20.35/100
• National rank: #8606
• State rank: #726 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 71/100

Livability — Taylor

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #312
• US rank: #7013

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Taylor, TX
• County: Williamson County · 699,027 people
• City population: 20,242
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,242
• Household income: $78,568
• Rent vs Own: 23.4% rent · 76.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

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Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 22% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 23% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -108.71%
• Current HPI: 227.58
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.43%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $258,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $256,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-01 Price Changed $254,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $256,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-31 Price Changed $254,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $249,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $254,990 Zillow
• 2025-09-28 Price Changed $249,990 Zillow
• 2025-09-24 Listed $299,990 Zillow