463 Cairo Junction Rd

South Cairo, NY 12414

$724,900D

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 4,370 sqft · Built 1850 · MultiFamily · Active · 84 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,865/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,801
• Tax + insurance: −$730
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,232
• Net cashflow: $102/mo
• Annual: $1,219/yr
• Cap rate: 6.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.60%
• DSCR: 1.03
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $202,972

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath multifamily listed at $725k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $102 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $586k (19.1% below list).
• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($681k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $586k (19.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $78k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $72k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Catskill Central School District (town): math 45% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #429 of 590 in NY (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Catskill Elementary School (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #1,195 of 2,108 statewide, top 60%, 574 students, 41% FRL); Catskill Middle School (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #587 of 729 statewide, top 81%, 303 students, 45% FRL); Catskill Senior High School (math 87% / reading 87%, grade A, #311 of 1,100 statewide, top 30%, 400 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools at 41% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1850 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 105 active listings in the ZIP; 97 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Greene County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 7 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $203k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$125k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• At $5,865/mo this rent would consume 96% of the median local household income ($73k/yr) (locally 318% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1850 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.