463 Cairo Junction Rd · South Cairo, NY 12414

$724,900

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 4,370 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 84 Days on market

Built 1850 2.00 ac lot $166/sqft · 25% above area Est $525k · 38% over ↓ 7% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks MLS

One-of-a-Kind, fully restored residence where historic charm melds w/ modern efficient upgrades. No expense was spared to preserve the exceptional period craftsmanship. A true legacy property for those who appreciate scale, setting and significance; made for lingering, slowing down & savoring the quiet peaceful surroundings. Come see why there have been only a handful of owners thru the years. Minutes to Downtown Catskill, Hudson (Amtrak), T-way Exit 21, Less than 2 Hours NYC. Catskill is a gateway to adventure, boating, hiking, golfing, Hudson River Skywalk, the ski resorts of Hunter & Windham mtns and Hudson Valley explorations. A turn-key property offering 5-6 BRs and 3 full baths over 2 sunlit floors, a restored barn w/loft, attached heated garage...... set on 2 beautiful peaceful park-like Acres. Spacious ONE LEVEL Living w/3BR and 2 Baths on 1st fl, the x-large kitchen is a chef's dream w/ oversized quartz island and breakfast nook opening onto the deck-enjoy your AM coffee w/ Songbirds. Have your guests flow into the Dining and Living Rooms-both open onto the wrap around covered front porch - what a delightful evening under the stars....... Laundry Rm, Mudrm and Heated Garage all on 1st fl-everything you need on 1 floor. The 2nd fl offers 2-3 additional Bedrooms, 1 Bath, Office, Family Rm + more. Plenty of space to make your own or would you like flexible living arrangements and/or extra income? Think - Live/Work, Multigenerational Living, Rental or Air Bnb income-all while having your own reserved ''get-a-way''? Not only your upstate retreat-but an investment for your future!? Multiple entry points offer the possibility of flexible living arrangements. The perfect blend of country living with quick access to all. This is your chance to own a move-in ready Home - a RARE FIND. Start enjoying the Hudson Valley today - EVERYTHING has been done for you! Call for Extensive List of Upgrades.

Key facts

• Turn-key property
• Restored barn
• X-large kitchen

Tags

• FULLY RESTORED RESIDENCE
• TURN-KEY PROPERTY
• RESTORED BARN
• ATTACHED HEATED GARAGE
• SPACIOUS ONE LEVEL LIVING
• X-LARGE KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath multifamily listed at $725k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $102 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $586k (19.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $586k (19.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Catskill Central School District (town): math 45% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #429 of 590 in NY (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 105 active listings in the ZIP; 97 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,865/mo this rent would consume 96% of the median local household income ($73k/yr) (locally 318% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $78k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $72k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Greene County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $203k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$125k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($681k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1850 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $586,500 (19.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1850 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.60%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $525,380
• List price: $724,900
• Delta: 37.98%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.98×
• Total profit: $401,063
• Equity at exit: $653,047

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.79×
• Total profit: $1,175,569
• Equity at exit: $1,408,321

Cash invested: $202,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12414

• Home prices YoY: 11.9%
• Active inventory: 105
• Price-to-rent: 28.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,865 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,801
• Tax from tax record: −$428 /mo · $5,140/yr
• Insurance: −$302
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,232
• Net cashflow: $102

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,736

Max offer price $724,900

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $512	-5% $307	+0% $102	+5% $-104	+10% $-309
Rent	-10% $-362	-5% $-130	+0% $102	+5% $333	+10% $565
Rate	-1.0pp $467	-0.5pp $286	base $102	+0.5pp $-86	+1.0pp $-277

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
1× unit	3	1	$2,112
▸ 2× units	2	1	$3,752
Total (3 units)			$5,865

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $181,225
• Closing costs: $21,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $724,900 Active 84 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $724,900 Active 82 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $724,900 Active 81 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $724,900 Active 80 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $724,900 Active 79 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $724,900 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $724,900 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $724,900 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $724,900 Active 72 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $724,900 Active 71 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $724,900 Active 70 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $747,000 Active 65 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $747,000 Active 64 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $747,000 Active 63 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $747,000 Active 62 DOM
16. 2026-03-30
    listed $747,000 Active 1952-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1952 chars)

    One-of-a-Kind, fully restored residence where historic charm melds w/ modern efficient upgrades. No expense was spared to preserve the exceptional period craftsmanship. A true legacy property for those who appreciate scale, setting and significance; made for lingering, slowing down & savoring the quiet peaceful surroundings. Come see why there have been only a handful of owners thru the years. Minutes to Downtown Catskill, Hudson (Amtrak), T-way Exit 21, Less than 2 Hours NYC. Catskill is a gateway to adventure, boating, hiking, golfing, Hudson River Skywalk, the ski resorts of Hunter & Windham mtns and Hudson Valley explorations. A turn-key property offering 5-6 BRs and 3 full baths over 2 sunlit floors, a restored barn w/loft, attached heated garage...... set on 2 beautiful peaceful park-like Acres. Spacious ONE LEVEL Living w/3BR and 2 Baths on 1st fl, the x-large kitchen is a chef's dream w/ oversized quartz island and breakfast nook opening onto the deck-enjoy your AM coffee w/ Songbirds. Have your guests flow into the Dining and Living Rooms-both open onto the wrap around covered front porch - what a delightful evening under the stars....... Laundry Rm, Mudrm and Heated Garage all on 1st fl-everything you need on 1 floor. The 2nd fl offers 2-3 additional Bedrooms, 1 Bath, Office, Family Rm + more. Plenty of space to make your own or would you like flexible living arrangements and/or extra income? Think - Live/Work, Multigenerational Living, Rental or Air Bnb income-all while having your own reserved ''get-a-way''? Not only your upstate retreat-but an investment for your future!? Multiple entry points offer the possibility of flexible living arrangements. The perfect blend of country living with quick access to all. This is your chance to own a move-in ready Home - a RARE FIND. Start enjoying the Hudson Valley today - EVERYTHING has been done for you! Call for Extensive List of Upgrades.

17. 2026-03-23
    listed $747,000 Active 1951-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1951 chars)

    One-of-a-Kind, fully restored residence where historic charm melds w/ modern efficient upgrades. No expense was spared to preserve the exceptional period craftsmanship. A true legacy property for those who appreciate scale, setting and significance; made for lingering, slowing down & savoring the quiet peaceful surroundings. Come see why there have been only a handful of owners thru the years. Minutes to Downtown Catskill, Hudson (Amtrak), T-way Exit 21, Less than 2 Hours NYC. Catskill is a gateway to adventure, boating, hiking, golfing, Hudson River Skywalk, the ski resorts of Hunter & Windham mtns and Hudson Valley explorations. A turn-key property offering 5-6 BRs and 3 full baths over 2 sunlit floors, a restored barn w/ loft, attached heated garage. .. .. . set on 2 beautiful peaceful park-like Acres. Spacious ONE LEVEL Living w/ 3BR and 2 Baths on 1st fl, the x-large kitchen is a chef's dream w/ oversized quartz island and breakfast nook opening onto the deck-enjoy your AM coffee w/ Songbirds. Have your guests flow into the Dining and Living Rooms-both open onto the wrap around covered front porch - what a delightful evening under the stars. .. .. .. Laundry Rm, Mudroom and Heated Garage all on 1st fl-everything you need on 1 floor. The 2nd fl offers 2-3 additional Bedrooms, 1 Bath, Office, Family Rm + more. Plenty of space to make your own or would you like flexible living arrangements and/or extra income? Think - Live/Work, Multigenerational Living, Rental or Air Bnb income-all while having your own reserved ''get-a-way''? Not only your upstate retreat-but an investment for your future!? Multiple entry points offer the possibility of flexible living arrangements. The perfect blend of country living with quick access to all. This is your chance to own a move-in ready Home - a RARE FIND. Start enjoying the Hudson Valley today - EVERYTHING has been done for you! Call for Extensive List of Upgrades.

18. 2025-11-03
    price $747,000
19. 2025-03-13
    listed $749,900 Active
20. 2025-03-06
    historical
21. 2024-12-31
    historical
22. 2024-12-28
    historical
23. 2024-09-27
    price $799,000
24. 2024-08-29
    price $799,000
25. 2024-08-08
    price $849,000
26. 2024-08-08
    price $849,000
27. 2024-06-12
    listed $799,000
28. 2024-06-12
    listed $799,000
29. 2024-06-12
    listed $899,000 Active
30. 2024-06-12
    listed $899,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,140 · $428/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,695 · $725/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,556/yr (+$296/mo · 69.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $70,380
• − Mortgage interest: −$40,606
• − Property taxes: −$5,140
• − Insurance: −$3,624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,630
• − Management: −$5,630
• − Depreciation: −$21,088
• Taxable loss: −$11,339
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,721
• After-tax cash flow: $3,940/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Catskill Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3606720
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $44,960
• Composite: 40.63/100
• National rank: #3685
• State rank: #429 of 590 in NY

Livability — South Cairo

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Greene County · 10,169 people
• City population: 601
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 10,169
• Household income: $73,036
• Rent vs Own: 31.7% rent · 68.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 318.0

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,963 people
• By 2030: 43,126 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 38,756 · -13.8%
• By 2050: 34,913 · -22.4%
• By 2075: 28,156 · -37.4%
• By 2100: 22,296 · -50.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 7%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 3% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Mexico
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: R (+17.0) · D 41.5% · R 58.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.1pp toward R · 2008: -9.9pp · 2024: -17.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.0 2020: R+15.6 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+11.1 2008: R+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 52.47%
• Current HPI: 494.3394
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-6.5% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Listed $747,000 Global MLS
• 2026-03-23 Listed $747,000 HVCRMLS
• 2025-11-03 Price Changed $747,000 HVCRMLS
• 2025-03-13 Listed $749,900 HVCRMLS
• 2025-03-06 Coming Soon — HVCRMLS
• 2024-12-31 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-28 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-27 Price Changed $799,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-29 Price Changed $799,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-08 Price Changed $849,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-08 Price Changed $849,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-12 Listed $899,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-12 Listed $899,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-12 Listed $799,000 HVCRMLS
• 2024-06-12 Listed $799,000 HVCRMLS

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,140 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.