2160 Ocelot St

Crandall, TX 75114

$216,750D

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,365 sqft · Built 2022 · SingleFamily · Pending · 85 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,344/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,137
• Tax + insurance: −$872
• HOA: −$50
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$492
• Net cashflow: $-207/mo
• Annual: $-2,487/yr
• Cap rate: 5.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.10%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 1.08%
• Cash to close: $60,690

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $217k. Condition is rated average.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-207 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $188k (13.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $217k).
• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($204k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $188k (13.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#507 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Crandall ISD (rural): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #351 of 826 in TX (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Nola Kathryn Wilson El (math 40% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,313 of 4,322 statewide, top 31%, 596 students, 59% FRL); Crandall Middle (math 38% / reading 42%, grade F, #646 of 1,662 statewide, top 40%, 983 students, 60% FRL); Crandall H S (math 33% / reading 53%, grade F, #713 of 1,632 statewide, top 44%, 1,707 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 41% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.3% of price.
• Market conditions: 802 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $38k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: Paint — Some minor scuff marks on interior walls.
• Minor: Landscaping — Overgrown areas in the yard need trimming and care.