127 Hutchins St

Batavia, NY 14020

$189,900B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,772 sqft · Built 1880 · MultiFamily · Pending · 46 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,971/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$490
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$624
• Net cashflow: $861/mo
• Annual: $10,336/yr
• Cap rate: 12.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.78%
• DSCR: 2.06
• 1% rule: 1.56%
• Cash to close: $53,172

Investor read

• This is a 1×2bd/1.0ba + 1×3bd/1.0ba units multifamily listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $861 ($10k/yr) — positive. Per door: $431/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $190k).
• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $184k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#536 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Batavia City School District (town): math 38% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #477 of 590 in NY (top 81%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $192/mo; built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 89 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 55 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Genesee County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 13.0% vs local median 5.5% in Batavia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,971/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($63k/yr) (locally 817% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?