3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,224 sqft ·
Built 1887
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 165 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,029/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$104
Tax + insurance
−$89
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$216
Net cashflow
$619/mo
Annual
$7,434/yr
Cap rate
43.65%
Cash-on-cash
133.41%
DSCR
6.94
1% rule
5.17%
Cash to close
$5,572
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $20k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $619 ($7k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $20k).
It's been on market 165 days — a 12% lower offer ($18k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $18k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $287 of equity ($138 loan paydown + $149 appreciation (0.8% local appreciation)).
Location reads 66/100 on livability (#645 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
Toledo City (urban): math 15% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #634 of 656 in OH (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Grove Patterson Academy Elementary School (math 47% / reading 66%, grade C+, #761 of 1,584 statewide, top 48%, 403 students, 38% FRL); Toledo Early College High School (math 72% / reading 87%, grade A-, #35 of 781 statewide, top 6%, 334 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools average 41% FRL vs 72% district-wide (30 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 68% at this address vs 20% district-wide (+48 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Toledo City average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
Watch-outs: property tax is 4.9% of price; built in 1887 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.8%/yr); 100 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 415 units permitted in Lucas County in 2024 (122 in 5+ unit buildings).
Lucas County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
7 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (37%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $5k; list at $20k implies a 298% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (0.8% appreciation + 7.8% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
Cap rate 43.6% vs local median 7.7% in Toledo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 165 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1887 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
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