307 W Malvern Ct Unit B

Lakewood, NJ 08701

$119,000B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 858 sqft · Built 1968 · SingleFamily · Active · 196 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,977/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax + insurance: −$198
• HOA: −$388
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $351/mo
• Annual: $4,217/yr
• Cap rate: 9.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.66%
• DSCR: 1.56
• 1% rule: 1.66%
• Cash to close: $33,320

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $119k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $351 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $119k).
• It's been on market 196 days — a 12% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $105k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#382 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lakewood Township School District (suburban): math 17% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #417 of 472 in NJ (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Oak Street Elem School (math 17% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,030 of 1,303 statewide, top 80%, 534 students, 97% FRL); Lakewood Middle School (math 16% / reading 30%, grade F, #376 of 431 statewide, top 88%, 995 students, 94% FRL); Lakewood High School (math 14% / reading 37%, grade F, #321 of 399 statewide, top 81%, 1,423 students, 86% FRL).
• Market conditions: 749 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 66d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 74% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 69% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 2.7% in Lakewood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 196 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: exterior siding — Weathered and in need of repainting
• Minor: landscaping — Some overgrown vegetation