307 W Malvern Ct Unit B · Lakewood, NJ 08701

$119,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 858 sqft · SingleFamily · 196 Days on market

Built 1968 Fair condition 871 sqft lot $139/sqft · 29% below area Est $167k · 29% under $388/mo HOA · 20% of rent ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Greenbrier Model in Leisure Village. Two bedrooms. One bath. Home is currently rented. Leisure Village offers two recreational centers, two outdoor pools, a nine-hole pitch & putt golf course, bocce, shuffleboard, horseshoes, basketball, fitness room, libraries, mini-marina, boat slips, picnic area, an onsite bank. One time fee paid by buyer to HOA--buyer to confirm with HOA all current fees, maintenance fee and any/all restrictions.

Key facts

• Boat slips
• Picnic area
• Mini-marina

Tags

• OUTDOOR POOLS
• FITNESS ROOM
• MINI-MARINA
• BOAT SLIPS
• PICNIC AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $119k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $351 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $119k).
• Recommended offer: $105k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 2.7% in Lakewood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#382 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lakewood Township School District (suburban): math 17% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #417 of 472 in NJ (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Oak Street Elem School (math 17% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,030 of 1,303 statewide, top 80%, 534 students, 97% FRL); Lakewood Middle School (math 16% / reading 30%, grade F, #376 of 431 statewide, top 88%, 995 students, 94% FRL); Lakewood High School (math 14% / reading 37%, grade F, #321 of 399 statewide, top 81%, 1,423 students, 86% FRL).
• Market conditions: 749 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 66d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 74% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 196 days — a 12% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 69% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $104,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 196 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.66% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.66%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $167,038
• List price: $119,000
• Delta: -28.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
300B W Malvern Ct Unit B	0.09mi	2/1.0	858 (0%)	2mo	$100,000	$117	95
167A Huntington Dr	0.34mi	2/1.0	858 (0%)	1mo	$140,000	$163	83
168B Huntington Dr Unit B	0.35mi	2/1.0	858 (0%)	1mo	$156,000	$182	82
103F Edinburgh Ln	0.44mi	2/1.0	858 (0%)	2mo	$185,000	$216	78
91F Buckingham Dr Unit F	0.32mi	2/1.0	819 (-4%)	2mo	$140,000	$171	76
52C Cambridge Ct	0.37mi	1/1.0 (-1)	868 (+1%)	0mo	$100,000	$115	76
67 Dorchester Dr Unit E	0.22mi	2/1.0	928 (+8%)	1mo	$130,000	$140	75
72F Dorchester Dr	0.25mi	2/1.0	928 (+8%)	0mo	$170,500	$184	75
651B Plymouth Dr Unit B	0.70mi	2/1.0	858 (0%)	2mo	$185,000	$216	66
61 Buckingham Dr Unit A	0.30mi	2/2.0	968 (+13%)	1mo	$159,900	$165	60
259C Huntington Dr Unit 259 C	0.62mi	1/1.0 (-1)	808 (-6%)	1mo	$160,000	$198	56
681 New Castle Ct Unit B	0.73mi	2/1.0	982 (+14%)	1mo	$246,000	$251	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $3,368
• Equity at exit: $17,743

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.99×
• Total profit: $32,844
• Equity at exit: $10,289

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 86 active · 66 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.3 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $187,000 ($212/sqft)
• Median days on market: 57 d
• This list price: 7% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -8.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 08701

• Active inventory: 749
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,977 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$149 /mo · $1,785/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$388
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $351

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,532

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $434	-5% $393	+0% $351	+5% $310	+10% $269
Rent	-10% $195	-5% $273	+0% $351	+5% $430	+10% $508
Rate	-1.0pp $411	-0.5pp $382	base $351	+0.5pp $321	+1.0pp $289

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 35 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
308 Malvern Ct Unit C Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	858	$1,900	$2.21	53d	1	0.04mi
365F Chesterfield Ct Lakewood, NJ	1.0	1.0	663	$1,500	$2.26	10d	1	0.19mi
335A Canterbury Ct Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	982	$1,950	$1.99	159d	1	0.20mi
341B Canterbury Ct Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	982	$2,275	$2.32	163d	1	0.20mi
363B Chesterfield Ct Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	858	$1,900	$2.21	10d	1	0.22mi
354C Dorchester Dr Unit 1003 Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	982	$1,700	$1.73	23d	1	0.23mi
433D Picardy Ct Lakewood, NJ	1.0	1.0	663	$1,550	$2.34	53d	1	0.37mi
47L Cambridge Ct Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	841	$1,795	$2.13	165d	1	0.38mi
106 Edinburgh Ln Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	858	$1,900	$2.21	70d	1	0.46mi
106 Edinburgh Ln Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	858	$1,900	$2.21	34d	1	0.46mi
106A Edinburgh Ln Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	858	$2,200	$2.56	158d	1	0.47mi
38K Cambridge Ct Unit K Lakewood, NJ	1.0	1.0	638	$1,450	$2.27	37d	1	0.48mi
219 Buckingham Ct Lakewood, NJ	1.0	1.0	663	$1,900	$2.87	184d	1	0.50mi
533E Dartmoor Ct Lakewood, NJ	1.0	1.0	663	$1,750	$2.64	66d	1	0.58mi
533E Dartmoor Ct Lakewood, NJ	1.0	1.0	663	$1,750	$2.64	110d	1	0.58mi
278C Kingston Ct Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,150	$2.15	130d	1	0.71mi
278C Kingston Ct Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,150	$2.15	96d	1	0.71mi
572A Sheffield Ct Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	982	$2,000	$2.04	34d	1	0.73mi
1034B Aberdeen Dr Lakewood, NJ	1.0	1.0	663	$1,350	$2.04	134d	1	0.91mi
1034B Aberdeen Dr Lakewood, NJ	1.0	1.0	663	$1,350	$2.04	86d	1	0.91mi
90 Corbin Ct Lakewood, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	935	$2,500	$2.67	3d	4	0.95mi
1042C Aberdeen Dr Unit C Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	982	$2,000	$2.04	144d	1	0.97mi
235 Sophee Ln Lakewood, NJ	1.0	1.0	889	$1,850	$2.08	31d	1	1.01mi
235 Sophee Ln Lakewood, NJ	1.0	1.0	889	$1,850	$2.08	10d	1	1.01mi
929 New Hampshire Ave Lakewood, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	996	$2,475	$2.48	0d	6	1.08mi
523 Sophee Ln #1000 Lakewood, NJ	1.0	1.0	889	$1,800	$2.02	140d	1	1.12mi
841B Inverness Ct Lakewood, NJ	1.0	1.0	663	$1,600	$2.41	96d	1	1.12mi
840 Inverness Ct Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	858	$1,850	$2.16	37d	1	1.13mi
1119 Argyll Cir Unit A Lakewood, NJ	1.0	1.0	663	$1,600	$2.41	10d	1	1.13mi
824A Balmoral Ct Unit A Toms River, NJ	2.0	1.0	982	$2,200	$2.24	159d	1	1.16mi
2104 Mount Hope Ln Toms River, NJ	2.0	1.0	1092	$2,350	$2.15	3d	1	1.19mi
829A Balmoral Ct Unit 1001 Lakewood, NJ	1.0	1.0	663	$1,600	$2.41	165d	1	1.21mi
2173 Mount Hood Ln Toms River, NJ	2.0	1.0	1100	$2,500	$2.27	45d	1	1.23mi
1734 Yorktowne Blvd Toms River, NJ	1.0	1.0	1072	$3,000	$2.80	94d	1	1.40mi
1211D Shetland Dr Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	858	$1,825	$2.13	29d	1	1.47mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association dues paid monthlyMonthly association fee: $388

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Attached propertyLocated in the Leisure Village community
• Exterior features: Shingle roofWaterfront property

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heatingElectric cooling
• Interior features: No fireplacesNo basement

HOA detail $388/mo · $4,656/yr

• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $119,000 Active 196 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $119,000 Active 195 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $119,000 Active 194 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $119,000 Active 193 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $119,000 Active 192 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $119,000 Active 190 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $119,000 Active 189 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $119,000 Active 188 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $119,000 Active 187 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $119,000 Active 186 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $119,000 Active 185 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $119,000 Active 184 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $119,000 Active 183 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $119,000 Active 182 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $119,000 Active 181 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $119,000 Active 180 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $119,000 Active 179 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $119,000 Active 178 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $119,000 Active 177 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $119,000 Active 176 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $119,000 Active 175 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $119,000 Active 174 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $119,000 Active 173 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $119,000 Active 172 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $119,000 Active 171 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $119,000 Active 170 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $119,000 Active 169 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $119,000 Active 168 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $119,000 Active 167 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $119,000 Active 166 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $119,000 Active 165 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $119,000 Active 164 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $119,000 Active 163 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $119,000 Active 162 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $119,000 Active 161 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $119,000 Active 160 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $119,000 Active 159 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $119,000 Active 158 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $119,000 Active 157 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $119,000 Active 156 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $119,000 Active 155 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $119,000 Active 154 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $119,000 Active 153 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $119,000 Active 152 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $119,000 Active 151 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $119,000 Active 150 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $119,000 Active 149 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $119,000 Active 148 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $119,000 Active 147 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $119,000 Active 146 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 69% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,724
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$1,785
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,898
• − Management: −$1,898
• − HOA: −$4,656
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable income: $2,764
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$663
• After-tax cash flow: $3,554/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $21,450–$38,610 screening

The home requires moderate repairs to the exterior siding and landscaping to improve its curb appeal and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — Weathered and in need of repainting
• Minor landscaping — Some overgrown vegetation

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both landscaping — Improves curb appeal and rental value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 22/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Oak Street Elem School F NJ #1,030/1,303 Nat'l #34,564/41,679 Middle Lakewood Middle School F NJ #376/431 Nat'l #11,007/14,009 High Lakewood High School F NJ #321/399 Nat'l #12,309/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lakewood Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3408220
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,301
• Composite: 19.21/100
• National rank: #8813
• State rank: #417 of 472 in NJ

C Composite livability gradescore 65/100

Livability — Lakewood

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #382
• US rank: #13069

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment C- Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Leisure Village, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 586,991 people
• City population: 139,149
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 139,149
• Household income: $64,959
• Rent vs Own: 48.5% rent · 51.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 19% of renters

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Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 2%
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 9% German/W. Germanic 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -682.83%
• Current HPI: 465.344
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association dues paid monthlyMonthly association fee: $388

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Attached propertyLocated in the Leisure Village community
• Exterior features: Shingle roofWaterfront property

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heatingElectric cooling
• Interior features: No fireplacesNo basement

Price history

-25.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Price Changed $119,000 MOMLS
• 2026-04-26 Listed $159,000 MOMLS