307 W Malvern Ct Unit B · Leisure Village, NJ 08701

$159,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 858 sqft · SingleFamily · 53 Days on market

Built 1968 Fair condition 871 sqft lot $185/sqft · at area comps Est $159k · at est. $388/mo HOA · 18% of rent ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.5/30.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Greenbrier Model in Leisure Village. Two bedrooms. One bath. Home is currently rented. Leisure Village offers two recreational centers, two outdoor pools, a nine-hole pitch & putt golf course, bocce, shuffleboard, horseshoes, basketball, fitness room, libraries, mini-marina, boat slips, picnic area, an onsite bank. One time fee paid by buyer to HOA--buyer to confirm with HOA all current fees, maintenance fee and any/all restrictions.

Key facts

• Boat slips
• Picnic area
• Mini-marina

Tags

• OUTDOOR POOLS
• FITNESS ROOM
• MINI-MARINA
• BOAT SLIPS
• PICNIC AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association dues paid monthly; Monthly association fee: $388

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Attached property; Located in the Leisure Village community
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Waterfront property

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Electric cooling
• Interior features: No fireplaces; No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $159k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $182 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).
• Recommended offer: $154k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 6.0% in Leisure Village — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#416 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime B+, cost of living B; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lakewood Township School District (suburban): math 17% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #417 of 472 in NJ (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 419 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 69% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,230 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.90%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $158,975
• List price: $159,000
• Delta: 0.02%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
110F Edinburgh Ln	0.43mi	2/1.0	858 (0%)	3mo	$130,000	$152	77
145B Buckingham Dr	0.29mi	1/1.0 (-1)	808 (-6%)	1mo	$179,900	$223	71
397A Chesterfield Ct	0.23mi	2/1.0	982 (+14%)	3mo	$260,000	$265	63
404A Picardy Ct	0.31mi	2/1.0	982 (+14%)	0mo	$235,000	$239	61
465D Thornbury Ct	0.49mi	2/1.0	982 (+14%)	2mo	$205,000	$209	51
537D Dartmoor Ct	0.59mi	2/1.0	982 (+14%)	2mo	$200,000	$204	47
530 Portsmouth Dr Unit D	0.65mi	2/1.0	982 (+14%)	2mo	$196,000	$200	44
699A Plymouth Dr Unit 699A	0.67mi	2/1.0	982 (+14%)	1mo	$259,000	$264	44
562 Portsmouth Dr Unit 562C	0.69mi	2/1.0	982 (+14%)	1mo	$187,000	$190	43
703 Plymouth Dr Unit A	0.70mi	2/1.0	982 (+14%)	1mo	$265,000	$270	42
569A Sheffield Ct	0.72mi	2/1.0	982 (+14%)	0mo	$1,169,900	$1,191	42
681B New Castle Ct	0.73mi	2/1.0	982 (+14%)	2mo	$147,000	$150	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-13,913
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $3,896
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08701

• Active inventory: 419
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,112 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$199 /mo · $2,385/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$388
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $182

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,882

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
335A Canterbury Ct Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	982	$1,950	$1.99	18d	1	0.20mi
341B Canterbury Ct Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	982	$2,275	$2.32	21d	1	0.20mi
47L Cambridge Ct Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	841	$1,795	$2.13	24d	1	0.38mi
106A Edinburgh Ln Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	858	$2,200	$2.56	17d	1	0.47mi
219 Buckingham Ct Lakewood, NJ	1.0	1.0	663	$1,900	$2.87	43d	1	0.50mi
278C Kingston Ct Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,250	$2.25	1d	1	0.71mi
1042C Aberdeen Dr Unit C Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	982	$2,000	$2.04	3d	1	0.97mi
824A Balmoral Ct Unit A Toms River, NJ	2.0	1.0	982	$2,200	$2.24	18d	1	1.16mi
829A Balmoral Ct Unit 1001 Lakewood, NJ	1.0	1.0	663	$1,600	$2.41	24d	1	1.21mi
1100 Deer Path Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0–1.5	1187	$2,575	$2.17	1d	4	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $388 · $4,656/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,000 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,000 Active 52 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,000 Active 51 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,000 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,000 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,000 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,000 Active 44 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,000 Active 43 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $159,000 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $159,000 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,000 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,000 Active 37 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,000 Active 36 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,000 Active 35 DOM
15. 2026-04-26
    listed $159,000 Active 443-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 69% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,347
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$2,385
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,028
• − Management: −$2,028
• − HOA: −$4,656
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable loss: −$77
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$18
• After-tax cash flow: $2,201/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The home requires moderate repairs to the exterior siding and landscaping to improve its curb appeal and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — Weathered and in need of repainting
• Minor landscaping — Some overgrown vegetation

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both landscaping — Improves curb appeal and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Weathered and in need of repainting	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · Some overgrown vegetation	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$15,500–53,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both landscaping — Improves curb appeal and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lakewood Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3408220
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,301
• Composite: 19.21/100
• National rank: #8813
• State rank: #417 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Leisure Village

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #416
• US rank: #14624

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Leisure Village, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 139,149
• Household income: $64,959
• Rent vs Own: 48.5% rent · 51.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 5757.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Italian 5% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 9% German/W. Germanic 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -682.83%
• Current HPI: 465.344
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

-25.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Price Changed $119,000 MOMLS
• 2026-04-26 Listed $159,000 MOMLS