307 W Malvern Ct Unit B · Leisure Village, NJ 08701

$119,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 858 sqft · SingleFamily · 104 Days on market

Built 1968 Fair condition 871 sqft lot $139/sqft · 28% below area Est $166k · 28% under $388/mo HOA · 19% of rent ↓ 25% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Greenbrier Model in Leisure Village. Two bedrooms. One bath. Home is currently rented. Leisure Village offers two recreational centers, two outdoor pools, a nine-hole pitch & putt golf course, bocce, shuffleboard, horseshoes, basketball, fitness room, libraries, mini-marina, boat slips, picnic area, an onsite bank. One time fee paid by buyer to HOA--buyer to confirm with HOA all current fees, maintenance fee and any/all restrictions.

Key facts

• Boat slips
• Picnic area
• Mini-marina

Tags

• OUTDOOR POOLS
• FITNESS ROOM
• MINI-MARINA
• BOAT SLIPS
• PICNIC AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $119k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $424 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $119k).
• Recommended offer: $108k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 6.0% in Leisure Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#416 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime B+, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Lakewood Township School District (suburban): math 17% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #417 of 472 in NJ (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Oak Street Elem School (math 17% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,030 of 1,303 statewide, top 80%, 534 students, 97% FRL); Lakewood Middle School (math 16% / reading 30%, grade F, #376 of 431 statewide, top 88%, 995 students, 94% FRL); Lakewood High School (math 14% / reading 37%, grade F, #321 of 399 statewide, top 81%, 1,423 students, 86% FRL).
• Market conditions: 543 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 53d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 73% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 69% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,290 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.74% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.27%
• DSCR: 1.68
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $165,871
• List price: $119,000
• Delta: -28.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
300A W Malvern Ct Unit A	0.08mi	2/1.0	858 (0%)	1mo	$115,000	$134	95
367F Chesterfield Ct	0.15mi	2/1.0	858 (0%)	2mo	$155,000	$181	92
212D Huntington Dr Unit D	0.42mi	2/1.0	858 (0%)	1mo	$168,000	$196	80
80C Dorchester Dr	0.18mi	2/1.0	928 (+8%)	1mo	$140,000	$151	78
48G Cambridge Ct	0.44mi	2/1.0	841 (-2%)	1mo	$125,000	$149	75
41G Cambridge Ct	0.49mi	2/1.0	841 (-2%)	0mo	$117,500	$140	74
87C Dorchester Dr #1003	0.26mi	2/1.0	928 (+8%)	1mo	$140,000	$151	74
653F Plymouth Dr	0.73mi	2/1.0	858 (0%)	0mo	$196,500	$229	66
404A Picardy Ct	0.31mi	2/1.0	982 (+14%)	2mo	$235,000	$239	60
280B Kingston Ct #2001	0.70mi	2/1.0	982 (+14%)	0mo	$180,000	$183	43
682 New Castle Ct Unit B	0.74mi	2/1.0	982 (+14%)	1mo	$175,000	$178	41
569A Sheffield Ct	0.72mi	2/1.0	982 (+14%)	2mo	$1,169,900	$1,191	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $7,999
• Equity at exit: $17,743

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.29×
• Total profit: $42,844
• Equity at exit: $10,289

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 56 active · 44 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.4 mo (18%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $182,500 ($210/sqft)
• Median days on market: 55 d
• This list price: 4% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -8.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 08701

• Active inventory: 543
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,069 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$149 /mo · $1,785/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$388
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$434
• Net cashflow: $424

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,532

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $506	-5% $465	+0% $424	+5% $383	+10% $342
Rent	-10% $261	-5% $342	+0% $424	+5% $506	+10% $588
Rate	-1.0pp $484	-0.5pp $454	base $424	+0.5pp $393	+1.0pp $362

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
335A Canterbury Ct Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	982	$1,950	$1.99	68d	1	0.20mi
341B Canterbury Ct Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	982	$2,275	$2.32	71d	1	0.20mi
47L Cambridge Ct Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	841	$1,795	$2.13	73d	1	0.38mi
106A Edinburgh Ln Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	858	$2,200	$2.56	66d	1	0.47mi
219 Buckingham Ct Lakewood, NJ	1.0	1.0	663	$1,900	$2.87	93d	1	0.50mi
533E Dartmoor Ct Lakewood, NJ	1.0	1.0	663	$1,750	$2.64	19d	1	0.58mi
278C Kingston Ct Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,150	$2.15	4d	1	0.71mi
278C Kingston Ct Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,150	$2.15	38d	1	0.71mi
1034B Aberdeen Dr Lakewood, NJ	1.0	1.0	663	$1,350	$2.04	42d	1	0.91mi
1042C Aberdeen Dr Unit C Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	982	$2,000	$2.04	53d	1	0.97mi
523 Sophee Ln #1000 Lakewood, NJ	1.0	1.0	889	$1,800	$2.02	48d	1	1.12mi
841B Inverness Ct Lakewood, NJ	1.0	1.0	663	$1,600	$2.41	4d	1	1.12mi
824A Balmoral Ct Unit A Toms River, NJ	2.0	1.0	982	$2,200	$2.24	68d	1	1.16mi
829A Balmoral Ct Unit 1001 Lakewood, NJ	1.0	1.0	663	$1,600	$2.41	73d	1	1.21mi
1734 Yorktowne Blvd Toms River, NJ	1.0	1.0	1072	$3,000	$2.80	2d	1	1.40mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association dues paid monthlyMonthly association fee: $388

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Attached propertyLocated in the Leisure Village community
• Exterior features: Shingle roofWaterfront property

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heatingElectric cooling
• Interior features: No fireplacesNo basement

HOA detail $388/mo · $4,656/yr

• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $119,000 Active 104 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $119,000 Active 102 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $119,000 Active 101 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $119,000 Active 100 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $119,000 Active 99 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $119,000 Active 96 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $119,000 Active 94 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $119,000 Active 93 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $119,000 Active 91 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $119,000 Active 89 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $119,000 Active 88 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $119,000 Active 87 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $119,000 Active 86 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $119,000 Active 85 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $119,000 Active 83 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $119,000 Active 82 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $119,000 Active 81 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $119,000 Active 80 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $119,000 Active 79 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $119,000 Active 78 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $119,000 Active 77 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $119,000 Active 76 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $119,000 Active 75 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $119,000 Active 74 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $119,000 Active 72 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $119,000 Active 71 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $119,000 Active 70 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $119,000 Active 69 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $119,000 Active 68 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $119,000 Active 67 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $119,000 Active 66 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $119,000 Active 65 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $119,000 Active 64 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $119,000 Active 63 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $119,000 Active 62 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $119,000 Active 61 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $119,000 Active 59 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $119,000 Active 57 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    pricedays on market $119,000 Active 56 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $159,000 Active 53 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $159,000 Active 52 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $159,000 Active 51 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $159,000 Active 50 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $159,000 Active 48 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $159,000 Active 47 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $159,000 Active 44 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $159,000 Active 43 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,000 Active 42 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $159,000 Active 39 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,000 Active 38 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 69% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,828
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$1,785
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,986
• − Management: −$1,986
• − HOA: −$4,656
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable income: $3,692
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$886
• After-tax cash flow: $4,203/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $21,450–$38,610 screening

The home requires moderate repairs to the exterior siding and landscaping to improve its curb appeal and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — Weathered and in need of repainting
• Minor landscaping — Some overgrown vegetation

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both landscaping — Improves curb appeal and rental value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 22/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Oak Street Elem School F NJ #1,030/1,303 Nat'l #34,564/41,679 Middle Lakewood Middle School F NJ #376/431 Nat'l #11,007/14,009 High Lakewood High School F NJ #321/399 Nat'l #12,309/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lakewood Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3408220
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,301
• Composite: 19.21/100
• National rank: #8813
• State rank: #417 of 472 in NJ

C Composite livability gradescore 64/100

Livability — Leisure Village

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #416
• US rank: #14624

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Leisure Village, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 586,991 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 139,149
• Household income: $64,959
• Rent vs Own: 48.5% rent · 51.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 19% of renters

---

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Italian 5% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 9% German/W. Germanic 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -682.83%
• Current HPI: 465.344
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association dues paid monthlyMonthly association fee: $388

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Attached propertyLocated in the Leisure Village community
• Exterior features: Shingle roofWaterfront property

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heatingElectric cooling
• Interior features: No fireplacesNo basement

Price history

-25.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Price Changed $119,000 MOMLS
• 2026-04-26 Listed $159,000 MOMLS