766 Bay Esplanade

Clearwater, FL 33767

$719,000D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,640 sqft · Built 1940 · SingleFamily · Pending · 379 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,766/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,771
• Tax + insurance: −$1,293
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,211
• Net cashflow: $-509/mo
• Annual: $-6,102/yr
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.49%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $201,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $719k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-509 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $629k (12.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $577k (19.8% below list).
• It's been on market 379 days — a 12% lower offer ($633k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $577k (19.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (1.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#60 in FL, #988 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Sandy Lane Elementary School (math 32% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,969 of 2,144 statewide, top 94%, 304 students, 85% FRL); Dunedin Highland Middle School (math 53% / reading 52%, grade C+, #213 of 571 statewide, top 38%, 899 students, 53% FRL); Clearwater High School (math 30% / reading 36%, grade F, #406 of 667 statewide, top 61%, 1,664 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 48% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pinellas average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 431 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 7 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $225k; list at $719k implies a 220% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 8→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 379 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.