18 Johnson Ln

Poestenkill, NY 12018

$445,000D

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,809 sqft · Built 1997 · SingleFamily · Pending · 217 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,635/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,334
• Tax + insurance: −$379
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$553
• Net cashflow: $-631/mo
• Annual: $-7,577/yr
• Cap rate: 4.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.08%
• DSCR: 0.73
• 1% rule: 0.59%
• Cash to close: $124,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $445k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-631 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $333k (25.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $264k (40.8% below list).
• It's been on market 217 days — a 12% lower offer ($392k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $264k (40.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $48k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $44k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#798 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A-, cost of living B+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Averill Park Central School District (rural): math 58% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #169 of 590 in NY (top 29%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Poestenkill Elementary School (math 62% / reading 77%, grade A-, #447 of 2,108 statewide, top 24%, 346 students, 22% FRL); Algonquin Middle School (math 32% / reading 60%, grade D+, #334 of 729 statewide, top 46%, 585 students, 26% FRL); Averill Park High School (math 97% / reading 98%, grade A+, #49 of 1,100 statewide, top 5%, 897 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: 55 active listings in the ZIP; 405 units permitted in Rensselaer County in 2024 (224 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Rensselaer County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$76k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 2.1% in Poestenkill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 217 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.