18 Johnson Ln · Poestenkill, NY 12018

$445,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,809 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 217 Days on market

Built 1997 5.25 ac lot ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks

This charming home offers a peaceful retreat with quiet surroundings, perfect for relaxation. Inside, you'll find spacious bedrooms with plenty of natural light, providing a comfortable and inviting atmosphere. The full basement offers ample storage or potential for additional living space. Located within the award-winning Averill Park School District, this property combines tranquility with top-tier education options nearby. Only 20 mins to Amtrak, 5 mins to Hannaford, and close to lakes and hiking spots! Don't miss out on this gem!

Key facts

• Close to lakes
• Full basement
• 5.25 acre lot

Tags

• FULL BASEMENT
• AWARD WINNING SCHOOL DISTRICT
• CLOSE TO LAKES
• CLOSE TO HIKING SPOTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $445k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-631 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $333k (25.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $264k (40.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $264k (40.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 2.1% in Poestenkill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#798 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A-, cost of living B+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Averill Park Central School District (rural): math 58% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #169 of 590 in NY (top 29%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Poestenkill Elementary School (math 62% / reading 77%, grade A-, #447 of 2,108 statewide, top 24%, 346 students, 22% FRL); Algonquin Middle School (math 32% / reading 60%, grade D+, #334 of 729 statewide, top 46%, 585 students, 26% FRL); Averill Park High School (math 97% / reading 98%, grade A+, #49 of 1,100 statewide, top 5%, 897 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: 55 active listings in the ZIP; 405 units permitted in Rensselaer County in 2024 (224 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $48k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $44k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Rensselaer County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$76k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 217 days — a 12% lower offer ($392k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $263,500 (40.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 217 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.08%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 14.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.62×
• Total profit: $201,959
• Equity at exit: $400,891

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.02×
• Total profit: $625,999
• Equity at exit: $864,537

Cash invested: $124,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12018

• Home prices YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 55
• Price-to-rent: 14.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,635 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,334
• Tax from tax record: −$194 /mo · $2,329/yr
• Insurance: −$185
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$553
• Net cashflow: $-631

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,434

Max offer price $333,454

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-380	-5% $-505	+0% $-631	+5% $-757	+10% $-883
Rent	-10% $-840	-5% $-736	+0% $-631	+5% $-527	+10% $-423
Rate	-1.0pp $-407	-0.5pp $-518	base $-631	+0.5pp $-747	+1.0pp $-864

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $111,250
• Closing costs: $13,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-01-20
   status Pending
2. 2025-07-24
   price $445,000
3. 2025-06-17
   listed $475,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,329 · $194/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,925 · $410/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,596/yr (+$216/mo · 111.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,620
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,927
• − Property taxes: −$2,329
• − Insurance: −$2,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,530
• − Management: −$2,530
• − Depreciation: −$12,945
• Taxable loss: −$15,865
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,808
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,770/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Averill Park Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3600016
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $81,340
• Composite: 56.94/100
• National rank: #1113
• State rank: #169 of 590 in NY

Livability — Poestenkill

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #798
• US rank: #15428

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime D Employment A+ Housing A- Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,526
• Population (ZIP): 7,069

Population outlook (Rensselaer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 162,400 people
• By 2030: 161,746 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 158,095 · -2.7%
• By 2050: 152,966 · -5.8%
• By 2075: 140,767 · -13.3%
• By 2100: 124,727 · -23.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 4% Italian 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rensselaer

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.7% · R 49.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.0pp toward R · 2008: 9.3pp · 2024: 1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.4 2020: D+5.6 2016: R+2.9 2012: D+11.8 2008: D+9.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.43%
• Current HPI: 263.2196
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-6.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-20 Pending — Global MLS
• 2025-07-24 Price Changed $445,000 Global MLS
• 2025-06-17 Listed $475,000 Global MLS

Property tax history

-9.8%/yr

Latest (2021): $2,329 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.