5404 Forbestown Rd

Forbestown, CA 95941

$70,000B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 660 sqft · Built 1969 · Manufactured · Active · 101 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,101/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax + insurance: −$132
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$231
• Net cashflow: $371/mo
• Annual: $4,449/yr
• Cap rate: 12.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.70%
• DSCR: 2.01
• 1% rule: 1.57%
• Cash to close: $19,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $371 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $64k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($484 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,099 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A, employment B; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Marysville Joint Unified (suburban): math 14% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #455 of 517 in CA (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP; 946 units permitted in Butte County in 2024 (254 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Butte County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $29k (29%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (3.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.