5404 Forbestown Rd · Forbestown, CA 95941

$70,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 660 sqft · Manufactured public records · 101 Days on market

Built 1969 1.45 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice Meadow property with doublewide manufactured home , detached garage and some pine trees in a rural location .

Key facts

• Storage shed
• Over an acre
• 1.45 acre lot

Tags

• DETACHED GARAGE STRUCTURE
• STORAGE SHED
• OVER AN ACRE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $371 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $64k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,099 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A, employment B; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Marysville Joint Unified (suburban): math 14% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #455 of 517 in CA (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP; 946 units permitted in Butte County in 2024 (254 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($484 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• Butte County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (3.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $29k (29%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $63,700 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.70%
• DSCR: 2.01
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.88% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.81×
• Total profit: $35,390
• Equity at exit: $35,005

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.54×
• Total profit: $88,987
• Equity at exit: $56,869

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95941

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 7
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,101 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$102 /mo · $1,230/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$231
• Net cashflow: $371

Break-even live

Break-even rent $631

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $410	-5% $391	+0% $371	+5% $351	+10% $331
Rent	-10% $284	-5% $327	+0% $371	+5% $414	+10% $458
Rate	-1.0pp $406	-0.5pp $389	base $371	+0.5pp $353	+1.0pp $334

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $70,000 Active 101 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $70,000 Active 99 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $70,000 Active 98 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $70,000 Active 97 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $70,000 Active 96 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 95 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $70,000 Active 93 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $70,000 Active 92 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $70,000 Active 90 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $70,000 Active 89 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $70,000 Active 88 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $70,000 Active 87 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $70,000 Active 84 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $70,000 Active 83 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $70,000 Active 82 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $70,000 Active 81 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Active 80 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $70,000 Active 79 DOM
19. 2016-03-17
    soldstatus $99,000 Closed Sale 114-char remark

    Show marketing remark (114 chars)

    Nice Meadow property with doublewide manufactured home , detached garage and some pine trees in a rural location .

20. 2016-03-17
    soldstatus $99,000

    Show marketing remark (114 chars)

    Nice Meadow property with doublewide manufactured home , detached garage and some pine trees in a rural location .

21. 2016-02-27
    status Pending Sale 114-char remark

    Show marketing remark (114 chars)

    Nice Meadow property with doublewide manufactured home , detached garage and some pine trees in a rural location .

22. 2016-02-25
    listed $99,000 Active 114-char remark

    Show marketing remark (114 chars)

    Nice Meadow property with doublewide manufactured home , detached garage and some pine trees in a rural location .

23. 2016-02-15
    historical
24. 2015-11-25
    price $99,000
25. 2015-06-02
    listed $115,000 Active
26. 2015-06-01
    historical
27. 2015-02-18
    status Active
28. 2015-02-15
    historical
29. 2014-11-18
    listed $129,000 Active
30. 2009-07-01
    historical
31. 2009-02-11
    soldstatus $65,000
32. 2008-11-20
    listed $99,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,230 · $102/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,230 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 40 unhealthy d/yr today · 44 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,208
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,230
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,057
• − Management: −$1,057
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $3,557
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$854
• After-tax cash flow: $3,595/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marysville Joint Unified
• NCES district ID: 0624090
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $44,598
• Composite: 18.18/100
• National rank: #8961
• State rank: #455 of 517 in CA

Livability — Forbestown

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1099
• US rank: #25469

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment B Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Forbestown, CA
• Population (ZIP): 342

Population outlook (Butte County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 237,527 people
• By 2030: 243,804 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 253,899 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 262,561 · +10.5%
• By 2075: 283,709 · +19.4%
• By 2100: 282,689 · +19.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.93)
• Race & ethnicity: Two or more races 48% White 27% Native American 18% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Scottish 6% Serbian 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Butte

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.8% · R 49.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.4pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+1.7 2016: R+4.0 2012: R+3.9 2008: D+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.88%
• Current HPI: 274.372
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-0.5% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2016-03-17 Sold (Public Records) $99,000 Public Records
• 2016-03-17 Sold (MLS) $99,000 CRMLS
• 2016-02-27 Pending — CRMLS
• 2016-02-25 Listed $99,000 CRMLS
• 2016-02-15 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2015-11-25 Price Changed $99,000 CRMLS
• 2015-06-02 Listed $115,000 CRMLS
• 2015-06-01 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2015-02-18 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2015-02-15 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2014-11-18 Listed $129,000 CRMLS
• 2009-07-01 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2009-02-11 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2008-11-20 Listed $99,500 CRMLS

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,230 · +8.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.