37033 Mistletoe Rd

Squaw Valley, CA 93675

$159,900B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · Built 1964 · Manufactured · Active · 24 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,175/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$457
• Net cashflow: $726/mo
• Annual: $8,710/yr
• Cap rate: 11.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.45%
• DSCR: 1.87
• 1% rule: 1.36%
• Cash to close: $44,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $726 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $158k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#583 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Cutler-Orosi Joint Unified (town): math 15% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #443 of 517 in CA (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 91% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Palm Elementary (math 17% / reading 33%, grade F, #959 of 1,571 statewide, top 62%, 567 students, 94% FRL); El Monte Middle (math 12% / reading 30%, grade F, #408 of 498 statewide, top 82%, 923 students, 97% FRL); Orosi High (math 23% / reading 53%, grade F, #571 of 1,170 statewide, top 49%, 1,049 students, 95% FRL) — zoned schools at 96% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 77 active listings in the ZIP; 2,426 units permitted in Fresno County in 2024 (296 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fresno County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.7% vs local median 3.7% in Squaw Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.