37033 Mistletoe Rd · Squaw Valley, CA 93675

$159,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · Manufactured · 24 Days on market

Built 1964 2.54 ac lot $107/sqft · 11% below area Est $181k · 11% under ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.7/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Manufactured Home on 2.54 Acres, 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath with an outbuilding, Beautiful Views Enjoy Rural Living! Enough room for a garden, Large Animals, Chickens, Don't miss out this property, Call today!!

Key facts

• Garden
• Outbuilding
• 2.54 acres

Tags

• 2.54 ACRES
• OUTBUILDING
• GARDEN

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Potential RV parking; Work/shop area
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Electric service on; Septic tank
• Home design: Mobile home; Other-type roof
• Construction: Metal siding; Wood subfloor foundation
• Exterior features: One-level property; Foothill and pasture setting; Horses allowed; Shed(s); Potential RV parking; Work/shop area

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Floor or wall heating units; Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: Carpet flooring; No basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $726 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.7% vs local median 3.7% in Squaw Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#583 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Cutler-Orosi Joint Unified (town): math 15% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #443 of 517 in CA (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 91% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Palm Elementary (math 17% / reading 33%, grade F, #959 of 1,571 statewide, top 62%, 567 students, 94% FRL); El Monte Middle (math 12% / reading 30%, grade F, #408 of 498 statewide, top 82%, 923 students, 97% FRL); Orosi High (math 23% / reading 53%, grade F, #571 of 1,170 statewide, top 49%, 1,049 students, 95% FRL) — zoned schools at 96% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 77 active listings in the ZIP; 2,426 units permitted in Fresno County in 2024 (296 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fresno County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,501 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.45%
• DSCR: 1.87
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $180,575
• List price: $159,900
• Delta: -11.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $20,281
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $77,039
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93675

• Home prices YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 77
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,175 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$87 /mo · $1,045/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$457
• Net cashflow: $726

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,256

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $816	-5% $771	+0% $726	+5% $681	+10% $635
Rent	-10% $554	-5% $640	+0% $726	+5% $812	+10% $898
Rate	-1.0pp $806	-0.5pp $766	base $726	+0.5pp $684	+1.0pp $642

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $159,900 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,900 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,900 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,900 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,900 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $159,900 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,900 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $159,900 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,900 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $159,900 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,900 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $159,900 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,900 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,900 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,900 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,900 Active 3 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $159,900 Active 2 DOM
18. 2026-03-12
    price $159,900 202-char remark

    Show marketing remark (202 chars)

    Manufactured Home on 2.54 Acres, 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath with an outbuilding, Beautiful Views Enjoy Rural Living! Enough room for a garden, Large Animals, Chickens, Don't miss out this property, Call today!!

19. 2025-11-18
    price $169,900 202-char remark

    Show marketing remark (202 chars)

    Manufactured Home on 2.54 Acres, 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath with an outbuilding, Beautiful Views Enjoy Rural Living! Enough room for a garden, Large Animals, Chickens, Don't miss out this property, Call today!!

20. 2025-08-11
    listed $174,900 Active 202-char remark

    Show marketing remark (202 chars)

    Manufactured Home on 2.54 Acres, 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath with an outbuilding, Beautiful Views Enjoy Rural Living! Enough room for a garden, Large Animals, Chickens, Don't miss out this property, Call today!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,045 · $87/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,215 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: +$170/yr (+$14/mo · 16.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 8 d/yr ≥103°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 56 unhealthy d/yr today · 60 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,097
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$1,045
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,088
• − Management: −$2,088
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable income: $6,469
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,552
• After-tax cash flow: $7,157/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cutler-Orosi Joint Unified
• NCES district ID: 0610350
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $33,611
• Composite: 19.59/100
• National rank: #8756
• State rank: #443 of 517 in CA

Livability — Squaw Valley

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #583
• US rank: #18982

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Squaw Valley, CA
• City population: 3,739
• Population (ZIP): 3,739

Population outlook (Fresno County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,042,971 people
• By 2030: 1,072,198 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 1,122,408 · +7.6%
• By 2050: 1,157,251 · +11.0%
• By 2075: 1,182,575 · +13.4%
• By 2100: 1,105,899 · +6.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 39% Asian 11% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 30% Other Asian/Pacific 5% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fresno

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.5% · R 50.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.1pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: D+7.8 2016: D+3.9 2012: R+2.9 2008: D+2.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -7.56%
• Current HPI: 343.5472
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-8.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $159,900 TCMLS
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $169,900 TCMLS
• 2025-08-11 Listed $159,900 FRESNOMLS
• 2025-08-11 Listed $174,900 TCMLS

Property tax history

+13.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,045 · +234.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.