1153 Rumrill Blvd #17

San Pablo, CA 94806

$85,999B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 552 sqft · Built — · Manufactured · Pending · 220 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,808/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$451
• Tax + insurance: −$143
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $834/mo
• Annual: $10,010/yr
• Cap rate: 17.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.57%
• DSCR: 2.85
• 1% rule: 2.10%
• Cash to close: $24,080

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $86k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $834 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $86k).
• It's been on market 220 days — a 12% lower offer ($76k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $76k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $594 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#715 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: commute A+, housing B+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• West Contra Costa Unified (suburban): math 24% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #993 of 1,400 in CA (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 125 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 17.9% vs local median 2.9% in San Pablo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 220 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.