1153 Rumrill Blvd #17 · San Pablo, CA 94806

$85,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 552 sqft · Manufactured · 220 Days on market

Est $80k · 7% over ↓ 34% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +4.1/15.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Remodeled 2bed/1 Bath Mobile Home, Recently painted, great location access. Mobile home dimensions are 46' in Lenght, 12' in Width, buyer to verify actual square footage. Buyers need to apply with Hacienda Mobile Home Park (Lucia Vega, park manager 510-235-8644) and be approved to rent the mobile home space, buyers are to verify monthly space & deposit fees directly with the mobile home park.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 220 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $86k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $834 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $86k).
• Recommended offer: $76k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.9% vs local median 2.9% in San Pablo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#715 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: commute A+, housing B+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• West Contra Costa Unified (suburban): math 24% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #993 of 1,400 in CA (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 123 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $594 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 220 days — a 12% lower offer ($76k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $75,679 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 220 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.57%
• DSCR: 2.85
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $80,040
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1153 Rumrill Blvd #17	0.00mi	2/1.0	552 (0%)	1mo	$80,000	$145	99

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.06% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.63×
• Total profit: $39,331
• Equity at exit: $12,823

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.29×
• Total profit: $103,222
• Equity at exit: $7,436

Cash invested: $24,080 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94806

• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 123
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,808 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$451
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$107 /mo · $1,290/yr
• Insurance: −$36
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $834

Break-even live

Break-even rent $752

Max offer price $85,999

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $894	-5% $864	+0% $834	+5% $804	+10% $775
Rent	-10% $691	-5% $763	+0% $834	+5% $906	+10% $977
Rate	-1.0pp $877	-0.5pp $856	base $834	+0.5pp $812	+1.0pp $789

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,500
• Closing costs: $2,580
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1614 Rumrill Blvd Unit D San Pablo, CA	2.0	1.0	745	$1,795	$2.41	5d	1	0.37mi
1333 Market Ave Unit 3 San Pablo, CA	1.0	1.0	550	$1,549	$2.82	25d	1	0.56mi
1333 Market Ave Unit 2 San Pablo, CA	1.0	1.0	550	$1,549	$2.82	44d	1	0.56mi
2031 Market Ave #124 San Pablo, CA	2.0	1.0	691	$1,000	$1.45	19d	1	0.66mi
2031 Market Ave Unit private room San Pablo, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$1,200	$1.71	44d	1	0.66mi
1680 24th St San Pablo, CA	2.0	1.0	636	$1,895	$2.98	2d	1	0.77mi
2014 22nd St San Pablo, CA	1.0	1.0	500	$1,800	$3.60	25d	1	0.89mi
13728 San Pablo Ave San Pablo, CA	1.0	1.0	526	$1,563	$2.97	25d	1	1.15mi
14349 San Pablo Ave San Pablo, CA	1.0	1.0	750	$1,700	$2.27	44d	1	1.21mi
150 Marina Way Richmond, CA	2.0	1.0	715	$1,795	$2.51	15d	1	1.22mi
146 19th St Unit I Richmond, CA	2.0	1.0	690	$1,895	$2.75	25d	1	1.27mi
173 22nd St Richmond, CA	1.0	1.0	600	$1,800	$3.00	44d	1	1.30mi
827 S 33rd St Unit 827 Richmond, CA	2.0	1.0	731	$2,150	$2.94	13d	1	1.30mi
827 S 33rd St Unit 827 Richmond, CA	2.0	1.0	731	$2,150	$2.94	44d	1	1.30mi
177 22nd St Richmond, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$2,250	$3.00	44d	1	1.32mi
2808 Macdonald Ave Unit 2828 Richmond, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,990	$2.84	44d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-04-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-07
   price $85,999
3. 2026-01-29
   price $89,999
4. 2025-12-06
   price $99,999
5. 2025-10-08
   price $103,888
6. 2025-09-05
   listed $108,000 Active
7. 2023-10-16
   soldstatus $95,000 Closed 399-char remark

   Show marketing remark (399 chars)

   Remodeled 2bed/1 Bath Mobile Home, Recently painted, great location access. Mobile home dimensions are 46' in Lenght, 12' in Width, buyer to verify actual square footage. Buyers need to apply with Hacienda Mobile Home Park (Lucia Vega, park manager 510-235-8644) and be approved to rent the mobile home space, buyers are to verify monthly space & deposit fees directly with the mobile home park.

8. 2023-09-27
   status Pending 399-char remark

   Show marketing remark (399 chars)

   Remodeled 2bed/1 Bath Mobile Home, Recently painted, great location access. Mobile home dimensions are 46' in Lenght, 12' in Width, buyer to verify actual square footage. Buyers need to apply with Hacienda Mobile Home Park (Lucia Vega, park manager 510-235-8644) and be approved to rent the mobile home space, buyers are to verify monthly space & deposit fees directly with the mobile home park.

9. 2023-09-26
   status Pending - Show for Backups 399-char remark

   Show marketing remark (399 chars)

   Remodeled 2bed/1 Bath Mobile Home, Recently painted, great location access. Mobile home dimensions are 46' in Lenght, 12' in Width, buyer to verify actual square footage. Buyers need to apply with Hacienda Mobile Home Park (Lucia Vega, park manager 510-235-8644) and be approved to rent the mobile home space, buyers are to verify monthly space & deposit fees directly with the mobile home park.

10. 2023-09-11
    price $98,888 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    Remodeled 2bed/1 Bath Mobile Home, Recently painted, great location access. Mobile home dimensions are 46' in Lenght, 12' in Width, buyer to verify actual square footage. Buyers need to apply with Hacienda Mobile Home Park (Lucia Vega, park manager 510-235-8644) and be approved to rent the mobile home space, buyers are to verify monthly space & deposit fees directly with the mobile home park.

11. 2023-08-04
    price $115,000 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    Remodeled 2bed/1 Bath Mobile Home, Recently painted, great location access. Mobile home dimensions are 46' in Lenght, 12' in Width, buyer to verify actual square footage. Buyers need to apply with Hacienda Mobile Home Park (Lucia Vega, park manager 510-235-8644) and be approved to rent the mobile home space, buyers are to verify monthly space & deposit fees directly with the mobile home park.

12. 2023-07-07
    listed $130,000 New 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    Remodeled 2bed/1 Bath Mobile Home, Recently painted, great location access. Mobile home dimensions are 46' in Lenght, 12' in Width, buyer to verify actual square footage. Buyers need to apply with Hacienda Mobile Home Park (Lucia Vega, park manager 510-235-8644) and be approved to rent the mobile home space, buyers are to verify monthly space & deposit fees directly with the mobile home park.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥84°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 14 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,699
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,817
• − Property taxes: −$1,290
• − Insurance: −$430
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,736
• − Management: −$1,736
• − Depreciation: −$2,502
• Taxable income: $9,188
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,205
• After-tax cash flow: $7,805/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Contra Costa Unified
• NCES district ID: 0632550
• Math proficiency: 24% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $64,837
• Composite: 30.04/100
• National rank: #11623
• State rank: #993 of 1400 in CA

Livability — San Pablo

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #715
• US rank: #21354

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment B- Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Pablo, CA
• County: Contra Costa County · 1,059,880 people
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 62,546
• Household income: $86,034
• Rent vs Own: 50.1% rent · 49.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2830.0

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 51% Two or more races 16% Asian 16% Black 13% White 12% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Estonian 2% Italian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 38% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 39% English-only · Spanish 43% Other Indo-European 4% Tagalog/Filipino 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -665.89%
• Current HPI: 323.0082
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.06%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-33.8% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $85,999 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $89,999 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-12-06 Price Changed $99,999 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-10-08 Price Changed $103,888 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-09-05 Listed $108,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2023-10-16 Sold (MLS) $95,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2023-09-27 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2023-09-26 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2023-09-11 Price Changed $98,888 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2023-08-04 Price Changed $115,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2023-07-07 Listed $130,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR