1023 Union Bridge Road Rd

Ferrum, VA 24088

$265,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,640 sqft · Built 2007 · SingleFamily · Active · 58 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,399/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax + insurance: −$155
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $-439/mo
• Annual: $-5,270/yr
• Cap rate: 4.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.10%
• DSCR: 0.68
• 1% rule: 0.53%
• Cash to close: $74,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-439 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $187k (29.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (47.2% below list).
• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($257k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $140k (47.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#331 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, schools B; Watch: housing D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Patrick County Public School District (rural): math 69% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #18 of 131 in VA (top 14%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 35 active listings in the ZIP; 28 units permitted in Patrick County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Patrick County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 2.5% in Ferrum — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 47% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.