1023 Union Bridge Road Rd · Ferrum, VA 24088

$265,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,640 sqft · SingleFamily · 58 Days on market

Built 2007 5.41 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Appreciation +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0
• 1% rule +0.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This beautifully updated retreat in Patrick County offers space, privacy, and easy access to some of the area's best outdoor recreation. The 3-bedroom, 2-bath home has been significantly renovated and features a stunning, like-new interior with a modern lake-house feel throughout. Situated on a permanent reinforced concrete foundation, this home offers both peace of mind and long-term stability. Set on over 5 acres, the property provides plenty of room to explore, relax, and enjoy nature. A wraparound gravel driveway adds convenience, making access easy for multiple vehicles or even recreational equipment. Just approximately 1 mile to Ryans Branch Boat Ramp and about 4 miles to Fairy Stone State Park, offering hiking trails, swimming, and camping.

Key facts

• Over 5 acres
• 5.41 acre lot
• Built 2007

Tags

• OVER 5 ACRES
• WRAPAROUND GRAVEL DRIVEWAY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-439 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $187k (29.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (47.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $140k (47.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 2.5% in Ferrum — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#331 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, schools B; Watch: housing D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Patrick County Public School District (rural): math 69% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #18 of 131 in VA (top 14%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 35 active listings in the ZIP; 28 units permitted in Patrick County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Patrick County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($257k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $139,915 (47.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 47% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.53% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.10%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 15.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-71,069
• Equity at exit: $39,512

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.33×
• Total profit: $-98,534
• Equity at exit: $22,912

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24088

• Home prices YoY: -2.2%
• Active inventory: 35
• Price-to-rent: 15.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,399 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$44 /mo · $533/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $-439

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,955

Max offer price $187,416

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $265,000 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $265,000 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $265,000 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $265,000 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $265,000 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $265,000 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $265,000 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $265,000 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $265,000 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $265,000 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $265,000 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $265,000 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $265,000 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $265,000 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $265,000 Active 39 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $265,000 Active 38 DOM
17. 2026-04-20
    listed $265,000 Active 757-char remark

    Show marketing remark (757 chars)

    This beautifully updated retreat in Patrick County offers space, privacy, and easy access to some of the area's best outdoor recreation. The 3-bedroom, 2-bath home has been significantly renovated and features a stunning, like-new interior with a modern lake-house feel throughout. Situated on a permanent reinforced concrete foundation, this home offers both peace of mind and long-term stability. Set on over 5 acres, the property provides plenty of room to explore, relax, and enjoy nature. A wraparound gravel driveway adds convenience, making access easy for multiple vehicles or even recreational equipment. Just approximately 1 mile to Ryans Branch Boat Ramp and about 4 miles to Fairy Stone State Park, offering hiking trails, swimming, and camping.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $533 · $44/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,173 · $181/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,640/yr (+$137/mo · 307.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,790
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$533
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,343
• − Management: −$1,343
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$10,308
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,474
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,796/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Patrick County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102880
• Math proficiency: 69% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $36,331
• Composite: 60.52/100
• National rank: #842
• State rank: #18 of 131 in VA

Livability — Ferrum

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #331
• US rank: #12612

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D- Housing D+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,999

Population outlook (Patrick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,918 people
• By 2030: 16,097 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 14,317 · -15.4%
• By 2050: 12,476 · -26.3%
• By 2075: 9,051 · -46.5%
• By 2100: 6,138 · -63.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Black 10% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Patrick

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.4) · D 19.4% · R 79.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -30.6pp · 2024: -60.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.4 2020: R+58.0 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+38.9 2008: R+30.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.79%
• Current HPI: 208.5982
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Listed $265,000 MLSRV

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $533 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.