1517 Prairie Sage Way SE

Rio Rancho, NM 87124

$315,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,391 sqft · Built 2002 · SingleFamily · Pending · 31 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,303/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax + insurance: −$268
• HOA: −$65
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$484
• Net cashflow: $-165/mo
• Annual: $-1,980/yr
• Cap rate: 5.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.24%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $88,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-165 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $286k (9.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (26.9% below list).
• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($306k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $230k (26.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#17 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities D, commute F.
• Rio Rancho Public Schools (suburban): math 48% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #4 of 29 in NM (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Rio Rancho Elementary (534 students, 100% FRL); Rio Rancho Middle School (1,143 students, 24% FRL); Rio Rancho High (math 52% / reading 77%, grade B-, #22 of 110 statewide, top 22%, 2,573 students, 22% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 837 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,278 units permitted in Sandoval County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sandoval County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.6% in Rio Rancho — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.