1517 Prairie Sage Way SE · Rio Rancho, NM 87124

$315,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,391 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 2002 3,920 sqft lot $226/sqft · 7% below area Est $339k · 7% under $65/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PRICED UNDER MARKET VALUE!! Welcome to this charming 3 bedroom, 2 bath home located in the desirable Sara Meadows Gated Community. Step inside to your quiet retreat. Natural light floods the home while you enjoy the functional kitchen with ample counter and storage space. All bedrooms are complete with a sliding door to the backyard patio, providing low maintenance backyard designed for easy upkeep, fully walled backyard ideal for relaxing. Prime location just minutes from Albuquerque, the charm of Corrales and its local markets, Intel, restaurants, shopping and trails.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Functional kitchen
• Prime location

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• SLIDING DOOR TO BACKYARD PATIO
• LOW MAINTENANCE BACKYARD
• FULLY WALLED BACKYARD
• PRIME LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-165 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $286k (9.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (26.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $230k (26.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.6% in Rio Rancho — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#17 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities D, commute F.
• Rio Rancho Public Schools (suburban): math 48% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #4 of 29 in NM (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Rio Rancho Elementary (534 students, 100% FRL); Rio Rancho Middle School (1,143 students, 24% FRL); Rio Rancho High (math 52% / reading 77%, grade B-, #22 of 110 statewide, top 22%, 2,573 students, 22% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 837 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,278 units permitted in Sandoval County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sandoval County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($306k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $230,346 (26.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.24%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $338,552
• List price: $315,000
• Delta: -6.96%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4420 Cave Primrose Ct SE	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,397 (+0%)	2mo	$370,000	$265	91
4449 Sunflower Ct SE	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,417 (+2%)	11mo	$325,000	$229	83
4432 Sunflower Ct SE	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,345 (-3%)	8mo	$340,000	$253	78
4405 Desert Lily Ct SE	0.03mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,308 (-6%)	7mo	$334,000	$255	78
4416 Cave Primrose Ct SE	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,302 (-6%)	23mo	$300,000	$230	59
1208 Tecolote Way SE	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,513 (+9%)	6mo	$340,000	$225	56
963 Benjamin Dr SE	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,280 (-8%)	5mo	$305,000	$238	48
4529 Ambrose Alday Loop SE	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,591 (+14%)	7mo	$370,000	$233	47
4444 Snowheights Cir SE	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,522 (+9%)	7mo	$341,392	$224	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-61,332
• Equity at exit: $46,968

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-66,033
• Equity at exit: $27,235

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87124

• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 837
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,303 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$137 /mo · $1,639/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$65
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$484
• Net cashflow: $-165

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,512

Max offer price $285,858

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $13	-5% $-76	+0% $-165	+5% $-254	+10% $-343
Rent	-10% $-347	-5% $-256	+0% $-165	+5% $-74	+10% $17
Rate	-1.0pp $-6	-0.5pp $-85	base $-165	+0.5pp $-247	+1.0pp $-330

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1429 Tiffany Ln SE Rio Rancho, NM	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,850	$1.73	16d	1	0.11mi
4433 Cave Primrose Ct SE Rio Rancho, NM	2.0	2.0	1447	$2,195	$1.52	45d	1	0.12mi
1517 Meadowlark Ln SE Rio Rancho, NM	2.0	2.5	1163	$2,095	$1.80	4d	3	0.13mi
4436 Snow Heights Cir SE Rio Rancho, NM	3.0	2.0	1586	$2,300	$1.45	4d	1	0.71mi
1071 Meadowlark Ct SE Rio Rancho, NM	2.0	1.0	950	$1,500	$1.58	4d	1	0.74mi
908 Bursum Ln SE Rio Rancho, NM	3.0	2.0	1343	$1,850	$1.38	45d	1	0.81mi
900 Los Reyes Ct SE Unit 904 Rio Rancho, NM	2.0	1.0	980	$1,275	$1.30	45d	1	0.83mi
4113 La Colorada Ct SE Rio Rancho, NM	3.0	2.0	1519	$2,075	$1.37	45d	1	1.08mi
401 Cerro de Ortega Dr SE Rio Rancho, NM	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,750	$1.67	23d	1	1.31mi
900 Country Club Dr SE Rio Rancho, NM	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	730	$1,567	$2.15	3d	12	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $65 · $780/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 576-char remark

   Show marketing remark (576 chars)

   PRICED UNDER MARKET VALUE!! Welcome to this charming 3 bedroom, 2 bath home located in the desirable Sara Meadows Gated Community. Step inside to your quiet retreat. Natural light floods the home while you enjoy the functional kitchen with ample counter and storage space. All bedrooms are complete with a sliding door to the backyard patio, providing low maintenance backyard designed for easy upkeep, fully walled backyard ideal for relaxing. Prime location just minutes from Albuquerque, the charm of Corrales and its local markets, Intel, restaurants, shopping and trails.

2. 2026-04-28
   price $320,000 576-char remark

   Show marketing remark (576 chars)

   PRICED UNDER MARKET VALUE!! Welcome to this charming 3 bedroom, 2 bath home located in the desirable Sara Meadows Gated Community. Step inside to your quiet retreat. Natural light floods the home while you enjoy the functional kitchen with ample counter and storage space. All bedrooms are complete with a sliding door to the backyard patio, providing low maintenance backyard designed for easy upkeep, fully walled backyard ideal for relaxing. Prime location just minutes from Albuquerque, the charm of Corrales and its local markets, Intel, restaurants, shopping and trails.

3. 2026-04-02
   listed $340,000 Active 576-char remark

   Show marketing remark (576 chars)

   PRICED UNDER MARKET VALUE!! Welcome to this charming 3 bedroom, 2 bath home located in the desirable Sara Meadows Gated Community. Step inside to your quiet retreat. Natural light floods the home while you enjoy the functional kitchen with ample counter and storage space. All bedrooms are complete with a sliding door to the backyard patio, providing low maintenance backyard designed for easy upkeep, fully walled backyard ideal for relaxing. Prime location just minutes from Albuquerque, the charm of Corrales and its local markets, Intel, restaurants, shopping and trails.

4. 2016-04-14
   soldstatus
5. 2016-02-14
   historical
6. 2016-02-05
   price $149,500
7. 2016-01-26
   price $150,000
8. 2015-12-24
   status Active
9. 2015-12-05
   historical
10. 2015-08-26
    listed $158,000 Active
11. 2015-08-25
    price $158,000
12. 2015-02-26
    price $164,900
13. 2013-07-16
    soldstatus
14. 2004-06-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,639 · $137/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,520 · $210/mo
• Expected delta: +$881/yr (+$73/mo · 53.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,642
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$1,639
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,211
• − Management: −$2,211
• − HOA: −$780
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$7,583
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,820
• After-tax cash flow: $-160/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rio Rancho Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500010
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▲ 48.00%
• Median HH income: $59,410
• Composite: 52.29/100
• National rank: #1595
• State rank: #4 of 29 in NM

Livability — Rio Rancho

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #7253

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A Crime C+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rio Rancho, NM
• County: Sandoval County · 110,336 people
• City population: 110,336
• Metro: Albuquerque, NM
• Population (ZIP): 58,499
• Household income: $86,555
• Rent vs Own: 20.9% rent · 79.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1027.0

Population outlook (Sandoval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 155,072 people
• By 2030: 161,714 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 171,831 · +10.8%
• By 2050: 178,536 · +15.1%
• By 2075: 192,517 · +24.1%
• By 2100: 197,952 · +27.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 18% Native American 5% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 12% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sandoval

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.8) · D 51.8% · R 46.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: 12.8pp · 2024: 5.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.8 2020: D+8.4 2016: D+2.7 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -303.50%
• Current HPI: 219.8377
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.13%
• Metro: Albuquerque, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+94.1% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — Southwest MLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $320,000 Southwest MLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $340,000 Southwest MLS
• 2016-04-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-02-14 Delisted — Southwest MLS
• 2016-02-05 Price Changed $149,500 Southwest MLS
• 2016-01-26 Price Changed $150,000 Southwest MLS
• 2015-12-24 Relisted — Southwest MLS
• 2015-12-05 Delisted — Southwest MLS
• 2015-08-26 Listed $158,000 Southwest MLS
• 2015-08-25 Price Changed $158,000 Southwest MLS
• 2015-02-26 Price Changed $164,900 Southwest MLS
• 2013-07-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-06-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-0.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,639 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.