128 Thundering Pines Ln

Reeds Spring, MO 65737

$210,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,058 sqft · Built 2025 · Other · Active · 32 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,418/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax + insurance: −$350
• HOA: −$75
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$298
• Net cashflow: $-406/mo
• Annual: $-4,875/yr
• Cap rate: 3.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.29%
• DSCR: 0.63
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $58,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $210k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-406 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $151k (28.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (32.5% below list).
• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($204k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $142k (32.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#114 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: schools C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Reeds Spring R-IV (rural): math 34% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #182 of 324 in MO (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 342 active listings in the ZIP; 191 units permitted in Stone County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Stone County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 1.0% in Reeds Spring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.